基于水文分区的海河流域洪水演变特性分析  

Analysis on Flood Evolution Characteristics in Haihe River Basin based on Hydrological Zones

作　　者：陈旭 韩瑞光[1] CHEN Xu;HAN Rui-guang(Hydrographic Bureau of Haihe River Water Conservancy Commission,Tianjin 300170,China)

机构地区：[1]海河水利委员会水文局,天津300170

出　　处：《海河水利》2021年第5期65-73,共9页Haihe Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFE0106500)。

摘　　要：基于下垫面要素和气候要素,采用主成分分析法和聚类分析法对海河流域水文分区进行划分,在此基础上,利用统计学方法开展洪水要素演变的趋势、突变和周期特性分析,系统而全面地揭示海河流域不同水文分区洪水演变的规律性。结果表明:基于下垫面和气候要素,海河流域共被划分为5个水文分区;第二—五水文分区洪峰、最大3 d洪量序列均呈现显著的下降趋势,其中第四水文分区下降最为显著、第三水文分区下降速率最快;第二水文分区洪峰的突变点为1990和1992年,最大3 d洪量的突变点为1979年;第三水文分区洪峰的突变点为1979年,最大3 d洪量的突变点为1979、1987和1990年;第四水文分区洪峰的突变点为1967、1983和1999年,最大3 d洪量的突变点为1982和1983年;第五水文分区洪峰的突变点为1964、1979和1982年,最大3 d洪量的突变点为1964、1979和1982年;第二—五水文分区洪水要素均表现出6~8、12~14 a的周期性,在短时间尺度上洪水等值线未封闭,正处于偏枯阶段,洪水偏枯状态将持续至2016—2022年。Based on the underlying surface and climatic factors,the principal component analysis and cluster analysis methods are applied to divide the hydrological zones of Haihe River Basin in this paper.On this basis,the trend,mutation and cycle characteristics of the evolution of flood elements are analyzed by statistical methods which systematically and comprehensively reveals the flood evolution law of different hydrological zones in Haihe River Basin.The results show that the Haihe River Basin is divided into five hydrological zones based on underlying surface and climatic factors.The flood peak and the maximum 3-day flood volume series of the second to fifth hydrological zones show a significant downward trend while the fourth hydrological zone has the most significant decline and the third hydrological zone has the fastest decline rate.In the second hydrological zone,the abrupt points of flood peak are 1990 and 1992 while the abrupt point of maximum 3-day flood volume is 1979.In the third hydrological zone,the abrupt point of flood peak is 1979 while the abrupt point of maximum 3-day flood volume are 1979,1987 and 1990.In the fourth hydrological zone,the abrupt points of flood peak are 1967,1983 and 1999 while the abrupt points of maximum 3-day flood volume are 1982 and 1983.In the fifth hydrological zone,the abrupt points of flood peak are 1964,1979 and 1982 while the abrupt points of maximum 3-day flood volume are 1964,1979 and 1982.The flood elements in the second to fifth hydrological zones all show periodicity of 6~8 years and 12~14 years.In the short time scale,the flood isoline is not closed and is in the drying stage which will last until 2016-2022.

关 键 词：海河流域 水文分区 洪水趋势 突变周期 

分 类 号：TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P33[天文地球—水文科学]