我国财政赤字货币化适度性问题研究  

On Appropriateness of Fiscal Deficit Mo netizatio n in China

作　　者：李程 朱逸林 Li Cheng;Zhu Yilin(Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China;Hong Kong Baptist University,Hongkong 999077,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济与管理学院,天津300387 [2]香港浸会大学工商管理学院,中国香港999077

出　　处：《新疆财经》2021年第5期16-25,共10页Finance & Economics of Xinjiang

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“异质性视角下的杠杆率结构优化与风险防范研究”(19FJYB009)。

摘　　要：本文通过计算1991年—2019年我国财政的可持续性K值发现,我国已连续多年出现财政不可持续的情况。通过对财政赤字货币化与财政的可持续性、经济增长和通货膨胀的实证分析发现:第一,财政不可持续的情况会加快财政赤字货币化进程,而财政赤字货币化在促进经济增长的同时也提高了通货膨胀率,但促进和提高的效果都在减弱;第二,财政赤字货币化能够提高财政的可持续性,尤其是在经济增长率和通胀率较高、赤字较少的阶段;第三,财政赤字货币化必须在一定的前提条件下实施才能有效。因此,我国实行财政赤字货币化应该保持适度性,发挥其在降低财政风险、促进经济增长、提高财政可持续性方面的积极作用。In view of the feasibility of fiscal deficit monetization,this paper calculates the K value to measure the fiscal sustainability,which shows that China has been experiencing unsustainable fiscal situation for many years.By analyzing the possible positive and negative effects of fiscal deficit monetization,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship among fiscal deficit monetization,fiscal sustainability,economic growth and inflation,it is found that unsustainable fiscal situation will push up the degree of fiscal deficit monetization.Deficit monetization promotes growth and increases inflation rate,however,the promotion and im‐provement effect are weakening.The monetization of fiscal deficit can improve the fiscal sustainability,especially in the stage of high growth rate and inflation rate and less deficit.Moreover,the monetization of fiscal deficit can reduce the deficit within a certain range with the increase of inflation rate,which indicates that the effective implementation of fiscal deficit is conditional.Therefore,the implementation of fiscal deficit monetization in China should maintain moderation,and give full play to the advantages of reducing fiscal risks and promoting economic growth.

关 键 词：新冠肺炎疫情 财政赤字货币化 财政的可持续性 积极的财政政策与货币政策 经济增长 通货膨胀风险 抗疫特别国债 

分 类 号：F812.2[经济管理—财政学]