贸易政策不确定性与中国制造业实体投资  

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Investment in China’s Manufacturing Industry

作　　者：冀志斌[1] 叶耐德 陈妍 Ji Zhibin;Ye Naide;Chen Yan(School of Finance,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law;Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance,Shanghai Jiao Tong University)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院金融学系 [2]上海交通大学上海高级金融学院 [3]中南财经政法大学金融学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2021年第9期3-13,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：中南财经政法大学基本科研业务费青年教师创新项目“资产价格、金融稳定与中国经济发展”(2722019JCT012)资助。

摘　　要：本文运用Huang and Luk(2020)构建的贸易政策不确定性指数和中国制造业上市公司数据,考察了贸易政策不确定性对制造业企业实体投资的影响。结果表明,贸易政策不确定性上升抑制了制造业企业实体投资,但滚动回归结果显示,该影响随时间的推移逐步减弱。中介效应检验结果表明,对国有企业而言,融资约束是贸易政策不确定性作用于制造业企业实体投资的主要中介因子;对非国有企业而言,除融资约束外,中介因子还包括企业产品的外部市场需求增长趋势和企业的资本成本。调节效应检验结果表明,银行业竞争程度的增加、全球价值链地位的提升及"一带一路"倡议的推进能够平抑贸易政策不确定性上升对制造业企业实体投资产生的负向冲击。Using trade policy uncertainty index based on the text analysis method(Huang&Luk,2020)and the data of China’s manufacturing listed companies,this paper investigates the impact of trade policy uncertainty on manufacturing enterprises’investment.The result shows that the rise in trade policy uncertainty has inhibited manufacturing companies’investment on real economy.However,this effect gradually diminishes over time.Further study shows that for state-owned enterprises,financing constraint is an important intermediary variable;for non state-owned enterprises,the channels also include the growth of product demand and the cost of capital.The test result of moderating effect shows that the rising degree of banking competition,the improvement of the position on the global value chain and the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative can weaken the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment.In order to alleviate the impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprises’investment,this article gives three suggestions.To promote banking competition by establishing a multi-level banking market and reduce enterprises’tax burden to weaken entities’financing constraint.To sign free trade agreements,promoting the implementation of the Belt and Road initiative,and actively participating in the formulation of international rules to give positive signals for the stable operation in the trade sector.To actively promote enterprise upgrading,thereby enhancing Chinese companies’position on the global value chain.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 制造业企业 实体投资 融资约束 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]