Inferring future warming in the Arctic from the observed global warming trend and CMIP6 simulations  

作　　者：HU Xiao-Ming MA Jie-Ru YING Jun CAI Ming KONG Yun-Qi 

机构地区：[1]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,519082,China [2]State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Institute of Oceanography,State Oceanic Administration,Hangzhou,310012,China [3]Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai,519082,China [4]Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education,College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou,730000,China [5]Department of Earth,Ocean,and Atmospheric Science,Florida State University,Tallahassee,32306,USA

出　　处：《Advances in Climate Change Research》2021年第4期499-507,共9页气候变化研究进展（英文版）

基　　金：grants from National Key R&D Program of China(2019YFA0607000);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41805050,42075028,41922044,42088101,41722502 and 41521004)。

摘　　要：The emergent constraint approach is a way of using multi-model ensembles to identify the linkage between current/past climate variability and future climate changes,which has been widely used for narrowing down the uncertainty of multi-model projections of future climate change.Climate models of the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)show a much stronger Arctic wanning signal but with a larger inter-model spread.In this study,we find that the projected Arctic warming made by multi-models in CMIP6 is positively correlated with the simulated global warming trend during the period of 1981-2011 in historical runs.This enables us to tighter constraints to future warming in the Arctic by using the observed global warming during the instrument era.The fact that CMIP6 models tend to overestimate the trend of global mean surface temperature during 1981-2011,therefore,would imply a relative weak Arctic warming compared to the CMIP6 median warming projection.

关 键 词：CMIP6 Arctic warming projection Global warming Observational constraint 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]