甘肃省农业技术创新与外向型农业发展的动态关系研究  

Study on Dynamic Relation of Agricultural Technology Innovation and Export-oriented Agricultural Development of Gansu Province

作　　者：胡瑜杰 朱万里 Hu Yujie;Zhu Wanli(Longqiao College of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730101,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学陇桥学院,甘肃兰州730101

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2021年第5期128-134,共7页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(19YB161);甘肃省高等学校科研项目(2018B-074);兰州市社科规划项目(20-004D)。

摘　　要：通过CRITIC赋权法和线性加权法构建了农业技术创新和甘肃外向型农业发展综合评价指数,测算了2个变量的综合评价数据。然后构建VAR模型,通过最优滞后期数的确定、VAR格兰杰因果检验、稳定性检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解等实证方法进行分析,研究发现:(1)农业技术创新和甘肃外向型农业发展均通过了平稳性检验,最优的滞后期数为2期,因此,构建了VAR模型;(2)农业技术创新是甘肃外向型农业发展的单向格兰杰原因,农业技术创新显著影响甘肃外向型农业发展,但反之不成立;(3)短期内,甘肃农业技术创新对甘肃外向型农业发展冲击效应为负,但长期来看,二者之间存在着稳定的正向关系;(4)甘肃外向型农业发展主要受自身贡献的影响,逐期下降后趋于稳定,农业技术创新对甘肃外向型农业发展贡献率较低,甘肃省农业技术创新和外向型农业发展之间并未形成相互助推的演进模式。Comprehensive evaluation of agricultural technology innovation and export-oriented agricultural development of Gansu province based on CRITIC weight method and linear weighted method was built in this paper,and comprehensive evaluation data of these two variables was measured as well.The VAR model was built in this study.The test results of optimal lagged period quantity,VAR Granger causality,stability,impulse response curve and variance decomposition show that both agricultural technology innovation and export-oriented agricultural development pass the stability test.The optimal lagged period quantity is 2,and VAR model is constructed on this basis.In addition,agricultural technology innovation is the unidirection Granger reason for export-oriented agricultural development,and the former has significant impact on the latter,but not vice versa.Thirdly,in the short term,the impact effect of Agricultural technology innovation on export-oriented agricultural development is negative,but in the long term,the relation is stably positive.Finally,export-oriented agricultural development is influenced by self-contribution,which gradually declines and then tends to stable.Agricultural technology innovation takes little proportion to export-oriented agricultural development,and there is no mutual help evolution relation between these two factors.

关 键 词：农业技术创新 外向型农业发展 CRITIC赋权法 线性加权法 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济] F832.7