长江流域人口-土地-经济城镇化的时空耦合协调性与驱动因子分析  

Spatial-temporal coupling coordination degree and driving factors of population, land and economy urbanization in the Yangtze Basin

作　　者：杨阳[1] 唐晓岚[1,2] 贾艳艳[3] 詹巧巧 YANG Yang;TANG Xiaolan;JIA Yanyan;Zhan Qiaoqiao(College of Landscape Architecture,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Academy of Chinese Ecological Progress and Forestry Studies,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Forestry College,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai'an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学风景园林学院,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学中国特色生态文明建设与林业发展研究院,南京210037 [3]山东农业大学林学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2021年第5期978-990,共13页World Regional Studies

基　　金：江苏省普通高校学术学位研究生科研创新计划项目(SJKY19_0870);国家自然科学基金项目(31270746);南京林业大学国家公园与保护地研究中心研究项目(2020NPB01);南京林业大学高等教育研究课题立项(2018B22)。

摘　　要：运用熵值法对长江流域2008年、2013年及2018年3个时期105个地级市的人口、土地、经济城镇化水平进行多维评测;依托ArcGIS平台分析城镇化的时空演变特征及耦合协调性的时空集聚模式;采用多元线性回归模型,挖掘城镇化耦合协调性的驱动因子。结果表明:长江上中下游地区城镇化耦合协调度显著差异,呈现出:下游地区>>中游地区>上游地区的格局。城镇化耦合协调度中等协调及以上水平的地级市主要位于长江三角洲、合肥与皖江沿线、武汉城市圈、长沙城市圈、成渝城市群、南昌、贵阳、昆明等地。耦合协调度处于失调水平的地级市主要位于长江源头地区、藏东—川西—滇北横断山区、甘肃陇南、乌蒙山区、武陵山区、南岭地区等地。城镇化耦合协调度的空间集聚模式可划分为热点聚集型、中部发展型、冷点聚集型、边缘游离型4种类型。在此基础上,构建出4种空间集聚类型的拟合模型,决定系数R2均大于0.800。立足于新型城镇化建设,对长江流域人口、土地、经济城镇化的发展提出了针对性的政策建议。The entropy method was used to carry out multidimensional evaluation of the population, land and economy urbanization level of 105 cities in the three periods of 2008, 2013 and 2018 in the Yangtze Basin. ArcGIS platform was used to analyze spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and coupling coordination degree of urbanization, and analyze the spatial-temporal agglomeration model. The multiple linear regression model was adopted to find the driving factors for the coupling coordination degree of urbanization. The results revealed that the coupling coordination degree of urbanization in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Basin was significantly different, showing a pattern of: downstream area >> midstream area >upstream area. The cities with medium and higher level of coupling coordination degree mainly included cities in the Yangtze River Delta, Hefei and Wanjiang cities, Wuhan City Circle, Changsha City Circle, Chengdu-Chongqing City Group, Nanchang, Guiyang, Kunming. The cities whose coupling coordination degree were in an unbalanced stage mainly included the source region of the Yangtze River, eastern Tibet, western Sichuan, Hengduan Mountains in northern Yunnan, Longnan, Gansu, Wumeng Mountains, Wuling Mountains, and Nanling Mountains. The spatial agglomeration model of coupling coordination degree of urbanization in various cities was divided into four types: hot spot cluster type, central development type, cold spot cluster type, and fringe dissociative type. Four spatial agglomeration models were constructed, and the model fitting decision coefficient R2 was greater than 0. 800. Finally, based on the coordinated development of new-type urbanization, this study proposed four policy recommendations for the development of population, land and economy urbanization in the Yangtze Basin.

关 键 词：长江流域 人口-土地-经济城镇化 耦合协调 时空演变 驱动因子 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学] F299.27