双积分型产业政策对新能源汽车产业的影响:基于企业政策适应行为的建模  

Impact of Dual-integral Industrial Policies on New Energy Vehicle Industry:Modeling Based on Enterprise Policy Adaptation Behavior

作　　者：周钟 刘敏 Zhou Zhong;Liu Min(School of Economic&Management,Shanghai Institute of Technology,Shanghai 201418,China)

机构地区：[1]上海应用技术大学经济与管理学院,上海201418

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2021年第18期47-57,共11页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“面向技术更替的积分限额交易型产业政策作用机理与政策优化研究”(19CGL056)。

摘　　要：新旧两种技术的管理与运营是企业普遍面临的决策问题,而具有主体引导与惩罚约束性的政策对改善市场资源配置效率发挥重要作用。针对以双积分形式衡量传统能源与新能源汽车技术性能的产业政策,基于技术运营和研发子模块的因果回路分析构建系统动力学模型,以吉利汽车为例,多情景仿真结果表明技术研发是降低燃料消耗量实际值、提高新能源汽车续航里程,从而实现积分负值转正的关键,其中外部市场需求通过影响研发资金投入、内部学习曲线效应通过直接作用研发过程从而影响政策施行效果和作用周期;另一方面,政府对燃料消耗量达标值等关键指标的调控决定着通过市场机制购买正积分的难度和成本,与市场需求因素共同影响企业的适应性决策。建议这类兼具主体引导与惩罚约束的产业政策设定阶梯式趋严的技术指标,在初期施加压力的同时刺激技术研发,企业在政策缓冲期内应避免完全市场导向的运营,通过提升技术性能指标效率为政策趋严时的产能产量调整提供空间。The management and operation of old and new technologies are common decision-making problems faced by enterprises,and the policies with subject guidance and punishment constraints play an important role in improving the efficiency of market resource allocation.Aiming at the industrial policy of measuring the technical performance of traditional energy and new energy vehicles in the form of dual-credits,this paper constructs a system dynamics model based on the causal loop analysis of technology operation and R&D sub-modules,and taking Geely Automobile as an example,the simulation results of multi-scenario show that technology R&D is the key to make dual-credits positive from negative by reducing the actual value of fuel consumption or improving the mileage of new energy vehicles,among them,the external market demand affects the R&D capital investment and the internal learning curve effect directly affects the R&D process,both of which influence the policy implementation effectiveness and action cycle;on the other hand,the government’s regulation of key indicators,such as the standard value of fuel consumption,determines the difficulty and cost of purchasing positive credits through the market mechanism,which affect the adaptive decision-making of enterprises together with market demand factors.To that end,the paper suggests that such industrial policies with both subject guidance and punishment constraints effect should set step-by-step stricter technical indicators to stimulate technology R&D while exerting pressure at the initial stage,meanwhile,enterprises should avoid fully market-oriented operation in the policy buffer period,and provide space for capacity and output adjustment when the policy is stricter by improving the efficiency of technical indicators.

关 键 词：产业政策 适应性行为 新能源汽车 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F019.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F420