我国高铁偿债平衡点与债务风险代际转移研究  

Break-even of Debt-paying and Intergenerational Transfer of Debt Risk for High Speed Railway in China

作　　者：何琳[1] 李红昌[1] He Lin;Li Hongchang(School of Economics and Management,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《技术经济》2021年第8期17-24,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：中国铁路投资有限公司科技研究开发计划课题“中国铁路可持续发展投融资模式研究”(ZGTT-QT-2020-093);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国高铁经济理论解析框架及演化路径研究”(17ZDA084)。

摘　　要：基于现金流理念,从开行密度视角测算高铁偿债平衡点。研究表明,目前达到列车开行密度偿债平衡点的高铁和客专营业里程分别占该类线路总营业里程的59.3%和20.9%,且债务风险可能发生代际转移。建议对高铁的外部效益实施财政补贴,优化线路公司的资本结构,适度提高单位票价率,加强城际高铁与干线高铁和民航机场的联接,提升高铁站与市内交通换乘的便捷性,并积极实施基于土地综合开发的TOD模式。Using cash flow concept,the train density break-even of debt-paying is calculated.Studies have shown that the ratios of meeting break-even for HSR and rail line for passenger traffic are 59.3%and 20.9%respectively,and the financial risk would transfer between generation.Our suggests include providing government subsidy for positive external benefits of HSR,optimizing capital structure of HSR joint ventures,raising the price rate of HSR,strengthening the connection between branch HSR lines and existing trunk HSR lines and airports,improving the convenience of the transfer between intercity HSR and urban public transportation,and developing TOD based on land development.

关 键 词：高铁 偿债平衡点 债务风险 代际转移 开行密度 

分 类 号：F532.3[经济管理—产业经济]