基于SCGE的国土空间规划模拟框架CTSPM及其在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的应用  

Simulation framework of China’s Territorial Spatial Planning Model(CTSPM) based on Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model(SCGE) and its application in land and space safety simulation

作　　者：沈体雁[1,2] 温璐歌 SHEN Ti-yan;WEN Lu-ge(School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;PKU Institute of Urban Governance,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学政府管理学院,北京100087 [2]北京大学城市治理研究院,北京100087

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2021年第9期2320-2334,共15页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：北京高等学校卓越青年科学家项目(JJWZYJH01201910003010);国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA055);国家自然科学基金重大项目(71733001);科技部重大专项(2019YFB1404604)。

摘　　要：土地利用指标的区域配置与部门配置是我国国土空间规划体系的核心问题。如何在贯彻落实国家意志和中央战略的前提下,根据我国不同类型自然地理区划和经济社会区划的发展实际,特别是根据城镇化格局定型区、发展型城镇化地区和收缩型城镇化地区等三类不同地区的土地利用的实际,充分顾及各级地方政府的发展意愿,优化配置各类用地指标,是本轮国土空间规划不可或缺的首要的基本任务。基于此,建立一个基于空间可计算一般均衡模型(SCGE)的多尺度、多区域、多情景国土空间规划模拟分析框架(CTSPM),提出该框架在国土空间安全模拟仿真中的实际应用场景,以支持多种国家发展情景和土地指标分配方案下国土空间格局模拟分析,及其经济社会影响和生态环境影响分析,为各地区、各部门之间的土地指标"博弈"提供"辩论"平台,为科学编制国土空间规划以及深度理解国土空间安全的跨区域影响提供分析性框架。The regional and department allocation of land use index is the key problem of National Territory Development Planning System. The most important task in this round of territorial space planning remains the optimal allocation of land use indexes of different types with the full consideration of the development wills of local governments at all levels. The task should be in line with the actual development of China’s diverse physical geographic regionalization and economic and social regionalization, in particular, the actual land use in three different regions, namely, urbanization-forming region, urbanization-developing region and urbanization-shrinking region with the implementation of state will and national strategy.In this paper, the authors seek to establish a multi-scale, multi-region and multi-context simulation framework of China’s Territorial Spatial Planning Model(CTSPM) based on the Spatial Computable General Equilibrium(SCGE) model, and proposes the actual application contexts in the safety simulation of territorial space for the support of the national territorial spatial framework simulation and analysis of multiple national development contexts and land index allocation planning as well as the analysis of its socio-economic influences and ecological environmental influences. The authors hope that this framework would serve as a "debate" platform for the "game" for obtaining land index between regions and departments and also an analytical framework for a scientific national territorial and spatial planning and a deep understanding of the cross-regional influences of national spatial safety.

关 键 词：国土空间规划 国土空间安全 土地利用指标分配 空间均衡模型(SCGE) 国土空间规划模拟模型框架(CTSPM) 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]