三角模糊数在水利工程建设项目风险评估中的应用  

Application of triangular fuzzy number in risk assessment of water conservancy projects

作　　者：柏茜 刘波[1] 姜新佩[2] BAI Xi;LIU Bo;JIANG Xinpei(School of Water Conservancy and Hydropower,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;School of Civil Engineering,Hebei University Of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [2]河北工程大学土木工程学院,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2021年第9期74-78,共5页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFF0300201)。

摘　　要：为进行水利工程建设项目的风险评估,本文通过构建三角模糊集理论风险评估模型,对安徽省绩溪抽水蓄能电站进行实证风险评估。评估结果表明,建设阶段的风险综合影响程度最高,管理阶段影响程度较低。从风险综合影响指标来看,影响程度最高两项分别是工程质量控制风险、施工技术支持风险。评估认为:应加大工程质量监管力度,降低前述两项风险的发生概率,制定详细可行的施工质量事故应急预案,减少事故对项目造成的损失。本文评估模型可对各风险因子分别评价,并按风险高低划分等级,可为相关单位提供参照。A triangular fuzzy set theory risk assessment model is constructed in the paper,and the empirical risk assessment is implemented on Jixi Pumped Storage Power Station in Anhui Province in order to carry out the risk assessment of water conservancy project construction projects. The evaluation results show that the comprehensive impact degree of risks is the highest in the construction stage,and the impact degree is low in the management stage. The two items with the highest impact degree are project quality control risk and construction technical support risk from the perspective of comprehensive risk impact index. It is concluded that the supervision of project quality should be strengthened,the occurrence probability of the two above-mentioned risks should be reduced,and a detailed and feasible emergency plan for construction quality accidents should be formulated to reduce the losses caused by accidents to the project. The evaluation model in the paper can be used for evaluating each risk factor respectively. It is classified according to the risk level,which can provide reference for relevant units.

关 键 词：水利工程建设项目 风险评估 三角模糊数 模糊集理论 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]