SIR/IR模型的新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情研究--基于湖北省2020年1-5月数据  

Prediction of Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Epidemic Based on SIR/IR Model:Based on the Epidemic Data of Hubei Province from January to May 2020

作　　者：邹浩越 李世霖[1] 刘韩坤 ZOU Haoyue;LI Shilin;LIU Hankun(College of Sciene,Hunan Univercity of Technology,Zhuzhou Hunan 412007,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学理学院,湖南株洲412007

出　　处：《湖南工业大学学报》2021年第6期89-94,共6页Journal of Hunan University of Technology

基　　金：湖南工业大学大学生创新创业训练计划基金资助项目(湖工大创字〔2020〕1号-74)。

摘　　要：基于SIR/IR传染病模型,根据湖北省2020年1—5月新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)公开数据,对湖北疫情变化和防控开展建模实证研究。首先,采用SIR模型对数据进行拟合,得到疫情变化曲线;然后,通过线性最小二乘法推导出COVID-19的基本传染系数R0,并以此系数具体化疫情防疫程度;最后,通过IR模型分析采取不同强度的管制和防控隔离措施对疫情的影响。演化结果表明,严格的管控会大大减少疫情的感染情况,缩短疫情结束时间。Based on the SIR/IR infectious disease model,and according to the public data of the new coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19)in Hubei Province from January to May 2020,a modeling empirical research has been carried out on the changes and prevention and control of the epidemic situation in Hubei.First,the SIR model is used to fit the data to obtain the epidemic change curve;then,the linear least square method is used to derive the basic infection coefficient R0 of COVID-19,and this coefficient is used to specify the degree of epidemic prevention;finally,the IR model is used to analyze and adopt The impact of different intensities of control and prevention and isolation measures on the epidemic.The evolution results show that strict control will greatly reduce the infection of the epidemic and shorten the time for the end of the epidemic.

关 键 词：SIR模型 IR模型 新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情 防疫效果 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学] O175[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]