玉溪烤烟气候适宜性分析的方法研究  

Study on the Method of Climate Suitability Analysis for Flue-cured Tobacco in Yuxi

作　　者：杨继周 谢新乔 朱安琪 李湘伟 罗丽华 张坤兰 李家志 景元书[2] YANG Jizhou;XIE Xinqiao;ZHU Anqi;LI Xiangwei;LUO Lihua;ZHANG Kunlan;LI Jiazhi;JING Yuanshu(Raw Material Department,Hongta Tobacco(Group)Co.,Ltd.,Yuxi 653100,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecasting Warning and Assessment,College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]红塔烟草(集团)有限责任公司原料部,云南玉溪653100 [2]气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2021年第5期832-840,共9页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41575111);红塔烟草(集团)有限责任公司项目(S-6019001);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目(2017-NY-038)。

摘　　要：【目的】为有效利用气候资源因地制宜合理布局烤烟生产,对烤烟气候适宜性进行划分。【方法】(1)利用玉溪市各标准站2009—2018年的地面观测数据及地理信息数据,选用符合玉溪地方特色的评价指标(海拔、7月平均气温、4—9月日照时间和4—9月降水量),结合气候适宜性指数与小网格推算模型对烤烟进行气候适宜性区划。(2)利用155个烤烟分布数据和23个环境变量数据,选用相同的4个区划指标和MaxEnt模型自带刀切法筛选的6个区划指标,结合ArcGIS对烤烟进行气候适宜性区划,并使用ROC曲线检验模型有效性。【结果】MaxEnt模拟结果有效性较高,2次模拟结果ACU值(ROC曲线下的面积)分别为0.792和0.826。对比以上不同方法的烤烟气候适宜性区划结果发现:在高海拔地区MaxEnt模拟结果优于小网格推算模型结果,基于6个指标MaxEnt模型区划结果相较于4个指标区划结果更加精确。【结论】小网格推算模型与MaxEnt模型可应用于烤烟气候适宜性分析,MaxEnt模型结果提高了玉溪地区烤烟气候适宜性区划的精确化程度。[Purpose]To make effective use of climate resources,the production of flue-cured tobacco is rationally arranged according to local conditions,and the climate suitability of flue-cured tobacco is divided.[Method](1)We used the ground observation data and geographic information data of Yuxi standard stations from 2009 to 2018 to select the evaluation index altitude,average temperature in July,Sunshine hours from April to September and precipitation from April to September that meet the local characteristics of Yuxi,combined climate fitness index and small grid calculation model to carry out zoning of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability.(2)We used 155 flue-cured tobacco distribution data and 23 environmental variable data,selected the same four zoning indicators and six zoning indexes selected by cutting method of MaxEnt model(maximum entropy model),combined with ArcGIS to make the flue-cured tobacco climate suitable and used ROC curve to test the validity of the model.[Result]The MaxEnt simulation results were effective,and the ACU values(area under the ROC curve)of the two simulation results were 0.792 and 0.826,respectively.By comparing and analyzing the above-mentioned different methods of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability zoning results,it was found that the MaxEnt simulation results were better than the small grid calculation model results in high altitude areas,and the MaxEnt model zoning results based on six indicators were more accurate than the four indicators zoning results.[Conclusion]The small-grid calculation model and MaxEnt model can be used to analyze the climate suitability of flue-cured tobacco.The results of MaxEnt model improve the accuracy of flue-cured tobacco climate suitability zoning in the high-altitude area of Yuxi.

关 键 词：烤烟 MaxEnt模型 气候适宜性区划 

分 类 号：S572.01[农业科学—烟草工业]