中国石油峰值与石化行业低碳转型发展  

China's Oil Consumption Peak and Petrochemical Low-Carbon Transformation

作　　者：乞孟迪 柯晓明[1] 程一步[1] 刘红光 Qi Mengdi;Ke Xiaoming;Cheng Yibu;Liu Hongguang(Sinopec Group Economic&Development Research Institute,Beijin 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石化集团经济技术研究院有限公司,北京100029

出　　处：《石油石化绿色低碳》2021年第5期1-6,43,共7页Green Petroleum & Petrochemicals

摘　　要：石油石化行业是我国经济社会发展的战略性支柱产业,也是高耗能行业,约占全国碳排放量的5%。能源、交通和工业等部门变革将导致2025—2030年中国石油需求达到7.8亿吨左右的峰值平台期。其中成品油需求2025年达峰,基础石化原料乙烯和PX,以及三大合成材料消费峰值将出现在2030年之后。石油石化行业2030年前后CO_(2)排放量为6亿~8亿吨,之后石化将成为全行业主要的碳排来源。为实现炼化产业低碳转型、可持续发展,建议:一是加强顶层设计,防范冲动投资造成资源浪费及区域布局不合理;二是完善碳交易市场化机制,加快构建绿色低碳经济体系;三是技术创新方面,加快绿色化、油转化、可循环、可降解、数字化利用,以及高新材料等技术的研发、转化和利用;四是加快传统与新能源产业融合发展,积极主动融入、推动能源绿色低碳转型。Oil and petrochemical industry is a strategic one in China's economic and social development.It is also a high energy consuming industry,accounting for about 5%of China's carbon emissions.Due to the changes in energy,transportation,industry and other sectors,China's oil demand is expected to plateau at around 780 million tons/year during the period 2025-2030.The demand for key refined oil products will peak in 2025,and the consumption of ethylene,PX and the three synthetic materials after 2030.The total CO_(2) emission of oil and petrochemical industry will reach 600-800 million tons around 2030,after which petrochemical sector will become the main carbon emission source in the whole oil refining and petrochemical industry.In order to realize the lowcarbon transformation and sustainable development of oil refining and petrochemical industry,suggestions are put forward as follows:firstly,the top-level design should be strengthened to prevent the waste of resources and avoid unreasonable regional layout caused by impulsive investment;secondly,the market-oriented mechanism of carbon trading should be improved to accelerate the construction of a green and low-carbon economic system;thirdly technological innovations should be accelerated in the R&D of green,recyclable and degradable petrochemicals,oil to petrochemicals,digital utilization and hi-tech materials;and fourthly,traditional and new energy industries should be integrated quickly and actively to promote the green and low-carbon energy transformation.

关 键 词：石油石化 碳达峰 碳中和 低碳转型 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.72