榆林市重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力预警评估  

Early Warning Assessment of Atmospheric Environmental Carrying Capacity in Key Coal Mine Areas in Yulin City

作　　者：刘俊梅 马永刚 LIU Junmei;MA Yonggang(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Yulin University,Yulin 719000,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]榆林学院数学与统计学院,陕西榆林719000

出　　处：《能源与节能》2021年第10期88-91,94,共5页Energy and Energy Conservation

基　　金：榆林市科技局项目(2019-90-1);陕西省教育厅项目(20JK1016);陕西省教育科学扶贫专项课题(JKYFP29);榆林市榆阳区基础教育科研规划课题项目(YYGH19106);榆林市教育科学规划课题项目(YLKT19204)。

摘　　要：区域经济的发展不能超越环境所能承受的最大容量,因此各级环保部门应在科学评估区域大气环境承载力的基础上制订大气环境政策。榆林市作为一个典型的能源型城市,建立重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力预警模型,不仅可以动态分析大气环境承载力,还有助于识别大气环境承载力变化趋势和大气环境风险问题。根据榆林市国家重点监控企业自行监测信息平台发布的数据,基于云模型和马尔可夫链建立重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力动态预警模型。研究结果表明,该模型具有良好的预警能力,榆林市重点煤矿区域大气环境承载力正在逐步提高。从整体来看,目前榆林市重点煤矿区域不存在严重超载风险。The development of regional economy cannot exceed the maximum capacity that the environment can withstand.There-fore,environmental protection departments at all levels should formulate atmospheric environmental policies on the basis of scien-tific assessment of the regional atmospheric environmental carrying capacity.As a typical energy-based city,Yulin has established an early warning model of atmospheric environmental carrying capacity in key coal mine areas,which can not only dynamically analyze the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity,but also help to identify changes in atmospheric environmental carrying capacity and atmospheric environmental risk issues.Based on the data released by the self-monitoring information platform of the national key monitoring enterprises in Yulin City,this paper established a dynamic early warning model of the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of key coal mine areas based on the cloud model and the Markov chain.The research results show that the model has good early warning capabilities,and the atmospheric environmental carrying capacity of key coal mine areas in Yulin City is gradually improving.On the whole,there is no serious overload risk in key coal mine areas in Yulin City.

关 键 词：大气环境承载力 云模型 马尔可夫链 重点煤矿区域 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]