1990年代以来我国制造业全要素生产率增速波动原因与对策研究  

Research on the Causes and Countermeasures of TFP Growth Rate of Fluctuation in China's Manufacturing Industry Since 1990s

作　　者：李震 沈坤荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院(经济学院) [2]南京大学教育部

出　　处：《现代管理科学》2021年第7期22-30,共9页Modern Management Science

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“我国经济增长潜力和动力研究”资助(项目编号:14ZDA023)。

摘　　要：全要素生产率(Total Factor Productivity,TFP)是体现技术进步增长的贡献程度的重要指标。通过沿用传统的Solow模型方法,着重分析近年来我国制造业全要素生产率的变动特征和趋势。结果显示,近年来我国制造业全要素生产率增速呈波动状态,且有下行趋势,表明传统的依靠要素投入驱动制造业发展的规模扩张模式正在快速弱化,而以技术创新为驱动力的内涵增长动能尚未实现转换接续,迫切需要实施有效举措,推动我国制造业转向由高水平、高效益全要素生产率驱动的经济增长模式。制造业全要素生产率水平下降的内在原因包括:过度投资和产能过剩是导致全要素生产率增速不断减缓的重要原因,有效供给不足和产业深陷低端困局是外在不利影响因素,内生动力不足和技术成果尚未有效转化为现实生产力是根本原因,而资源错配和机制不健全是全要素生产率增速下降更为深层次体制因素。在对策方面,建议把科技创新作为提高全要素生产率的根本动力,把投入产出作为衡量要素投入质效的主要标准,把优化资源要素配置作为提高全要素生产率的关键手段,把完善科技成果转化的制度环境作为提高全要素生产率的基本保障。Total factor productivity(TFP)is an important indicator of the contribution of technological progress and growth.This paper focuses on the analysis of the changing characteristics and trend of TFP in China′s manufacturing industry in recent years by applying the traditional solow model.The research shows that the TFP growth of China′s manufacturing industry has fluctuated in recent years with a downward trend,which indicates that the traditional mode of scale expansion driven by factor input is rapidly weakening,however,the economic growth momentum driven by technological innovation has not yet been transformed.It is urgent to carry out effective measures to promote the transition of China's manufacturing industry to a high-level and high-efficiency economic growth model driven by TFP.The inherent reasons for the decrease of the level of TFP in manufacturing industry are aralysed as follows:Excessive investment and overcapacity are the main reasons for the slow growth of TPF.Also,insufficient effective supply and low industry chains are the external negative factors,and the insufficient internal driving force and technological achievements have not been effectively transformed into real productive force are the fundamental reasons.Resource mismatch and imperfect mechanism are the further institutional factors for the decline of TFP.It is suggested that technological progress should be regarded as the fundamental driving force to improve TPF,the input-output ratio should be regarded as the main standard to measure the quality and efficiency of TPF,the optimization of resource allocation should be regarded as the key means for TPF,and the improvement of the institutional environment for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements should be regarded as the basic guarantee for TPF.

关 键 词：全要素生产率 制造业 增速波动 科技创新 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F222.33