“十四五”时期江苏经济增长潜力测算及支撑分析  

Estimation and Supporting Analysis of Jiangsu's Economic Growth Potential in the Period of the 14th Five-year Plan

作　　者：韩磊 

机构地区：[1]江苏省战略与发展研究中心宏观经济研究所

出　　处：《现代管理科学》2021年第7期31-40,共10页Modern Management Science

摘　　要：“十四五”时期是江苏建设社会主义现代化的开局起步期,需要在提高发展质量的基础上保持一定的经济增速。利用生产函数的基本原理,考虑资本、劳动产出弹性以及技术水平的动态时变性,建立状态空间模型对“十四五”时期江苏经济增长潜力展开测算,估算出资本产出弹性将逐渐走低,劳动投入产出弹性将逐渐走高,全要素生产率稳步增长,经济平均潜在增速为5.532%。在此基础上,建构结构化经济增长支撑分析框架,分析得出,“十四五”时期江苏可从战略、需求、产业、要素、空间5个方面寻求经济增长支撑。考虑到“十四五”时期中美贸易摩擦和新冠肺炎疫情引起的外部环境变化,江苏实际增速将低于潜在增速并进入新的增长区间,结构调整也是平缓而非剧烈的过程并呈现新特征。对此,江苏需要适时适度增加政策力度,对冲外部不利因素影响,使实际增速不要过低于潜在增速,争取与潜在增速持平或略高。The period of the 14th five-year plan is the beginning of the construction of socialist modernization in Jiangsu Province,which needs to maintain a certain rate of economic growth on the basis of improving the quality of development.Based on the basic principle of production function and taking into account the dynamic and time-varying nature of capital,labor output elasticity and technology level,a state space model is established to calculate the economic growth potential of Jiangsu Province in the period of the 14th five-year plan,it is estimated that the elasticity of capital output gradually decreases,the elasticity of labor input output gradually increases,and the total factor productivity increases steadily.The average potential growth rate of economy is 5.532%.On this basis,the analysis framework of structural economic growth support is constructed,and it is concluded that Jiangsu can seek economic growth support from five aspects:strategy,demand,industry,factors and space during the 14th five-year plan.Taking into account the changes in the external environment caused by the sino-us trade friction and the new pneumonia epidemic during the 14th five-year plan period,the actual growth rate of Jiangsu will be lower than the potential growth rate and enter a new growth range,structural adjustment is also a gradual,rather than dramatic,process with new features.For this,Jiangsu needs to increase the policy strength timely and appropriately,hedge the influence of external adverse factors,so that the actual growth rate should not be too low than the potential growth rate,and strive for the same or slightly high with the potential growth rate.

关 键 词：增长支撑 增长潜力 潜在产出 潜在增速 全要素生产率(TFP) 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]