空间面板数据模型在地面气温观测资料质量控制中的应用  

Application of spatial panel data model to the quality control for surface temperature observations

作　　者：熊雄[1] 姚薇 张颖超[3] XIONG Xiong;YAO Wei;ZHANG Yingchao(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Jiangsu Provincial Emergency Early Warning Information Publishing Center,Nanjing 210019,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心,南京210044 [2]江苏省突发事件预警信息发布中心,南京210019 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2021年第4期561-568,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41675156);江苏省高校自然科学研究面上资助项目(19KJB170004);中国铁路上海局公司重大科研项目(2019041);教育部高铁安全协同创新中心开放课题项目(GTAQ2019005)。

摘　　要：由于地面气温观测资料的时空分布符合空间面板数据结构特征,提出一种基于改进空间面板数据模型的地面气温观测资料质量控制算法(ST⁃RH算法)。该算法在利用邻近站地面气温观测资料时空相关性信息对目标站气温观测资料进行质量控制的基础上,兼顾了地面气温与相对湿度之间的强耦合关系,将相对湿度作为解释变量融入算法,增加了算法的内部复杂度,提高了算法的动态稳定性。为了检验该算法的有效性及适应性,利用ST⁃RH算法对多个场景地面气温观测资料进行质量控制,并与反距离加权算法(IDW算法)和空间回归算法(SRT算法)进行比较分析。试验结果表明,ST⁃RH算法相对于IDW算法和SRT算法更能有效地标记出地面气温观测资料中的存疑数据,同时多组独立案例的分析结果说明ST⁃RH算法具有更好的稳定性和适用性。Considering the spatial and temporal distribution of surface temperature observations which meet the spatial panel data structure,a new quality control method(ST⁃RH)based on spatial panel data was proposed.The ST⁃RH method employs the information from the neighboring stations to estimate the value of target station.As the strong⁃coupling relation between surface temperature and relative humidity,the relative humidity was introduced into ST⁃RH as an explanatory variable,which made the ST⁃RH more complicate and more stable.In order to test the new method,the IDW method and SRT method was used to evaluate the ST⁃RH method on different cases.The results of the comparison led to the recommendation that the ST⁃RH method is an effective quality method in identifying the seeded errors for the surface temperature with the best robustness and adaptability.

关 键 词：大气探测 地面气温 质量控制 空间面板数据 

分 类 号：P412.11[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]