应用指数平滑法预测医院急诊伤害的人数  

Application of Exponential Smoothing Method to Predict the Number of Emergency Department Injuries

作　　者：佘宇航 龚家辉 李燕妮 彭晓琳 彭绩[4] 彭义祥 赵丹 李丽萍[1,2] SHE Yu-hang;GONG Jia-hui;LI Yan-ni;PENG Xiao-lin;PENG Ji;PENG Yi-xiang;ZHAO Dan;LI Li-ping(Center far Injury Prevention Research,Shantou University Medical College,Shantou 515041,China;School of Public Health,Shantou University,Shantou 515041,China;Department of Tumor and Injury Prevention and Nutrition Department,Nanshan District Center far Chronic Disease Control,Shenzhen 518054,China;Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control,Shenzhen 518020,China)

机构地区：[1]汕头大学医学院伤害预防研究中心,汕头515041 [2]汕头大学公共卫生学院,汕头515041 [3]深圳市南山区慢性病防治院肿瘤伤害与营养科,深圳518054 [4]深圳市慢性病防治中心,深圳518020

出　　处：《伤害医学（电子版）》2021年第3期15-19,共5页Injury Medicine(Electronic Edition)

摘　　要：目的运用指数平滑法对深圳市南山区某综合医院急诊伤害人数进行预测,为该医院急诊科的资源合理分配提供参考。方法根据深圳市南山区某医院2011年1月-2019年6月的急诊伤害量数据进行模型拟合,并利用最佳模型对该院2019年7月—2019年12月急诊伤害人数进行预测、验证与评价。结果与其他模型相比,Holt-Winters加法模型能相对较好的拟合该院急诊伤害人数的变化规律,平稳R^(2)为0.653,R2为0.914,标准化的BIC为11.348,经Ljung-Box Q检验,残差为白噪声序列(P>0.05).利用Holt-Winters加法模型所预测的2019年7月—2019年9月的急诊伤害发生人数分别为:5125,4949,4919,5159,4873,4696,预测值与实际值的相对误差在0.001-0.079,短期预测值与实际值吻合度较高。结论指数平滑法可对该院急诊伤害人数进行短期良好的预测,在对该院急诊伤害人数的短期预测中存在一定的价值。Objective This study aimed to predict the number of emergency injuries in a certain hospital in Nanshan District of Shenzhen by exponential smoothing method and to provide a reference for the rational allocation of resources in the emergency department of the hospital.Methods Three models were established according to the emergency injury data from the hospital during January 2011 to June 2019.The number of emergency injuries in the hospital from July 2019 to December 2019 was predicted,verified,and evaluated by using the best model.Results Compared with the other two models,the Holt-Winters addition model could better fit the trend of the number of emergency injuries in the hospital.The stable R^(2)was 0.653,R^(2)was 0.914,and the standardized BIC was 11.348.By Ljung box Q test,the residual was white noise sequence(P>0.05).The numbers of emergency injuries predicted by the Holt-Winters addition model from July to September 2019 were 5125,4949,4919,5159,4873,and 4696 respectively.The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value was 0.001-0.079,and the short-term predicted value was in good agreement with the actual value.Conclusions The exponential smoothing method can make a good short-term prediction of the number of emergency injuries in the hospital and has a certain value in the short-term prediction of the number of emergency injuries in the hospital.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 急诊 伤害 预测 

分 类 号：R197.323[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]