生产性服务业集聚、空间溢出效应与制造业资本回报率——基于中国城市空间面板模型的实证  

Productive service industries agglomeration,spatial spillover effect and capital return of manufacturing industry:An empirical study based on urban space panel model in China

作　　者：杨君[1] 佘雯雯 肖明月[2] 吕品[1] YANG Jun;SHE Wenwen;XIAO Mingyue;LV Pin(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Sci-Tech University,Hangzhou 310018,China;School of Investment and Insurance,Zhejiang Financial College,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学经济管理学院,杭州310018 [2]浙江金融职业学院投资保险学院,杭州310018

出　　处：《浙江理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第5期479-492,共14页Journal of Zhejiang Sci-Tech University：Social Sciences

基　　金：浙江省哲学社会科学规划重点项目(20NDJC30Z);浙江省自然科学基金青年项目(LQ20G030001);浙江省科技厅软科学项目(2021C35020);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(19YJC790130);国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CJL044)。

摘　　要：基于中国城市数据,借助空间计量模型实证分析了生产性服务业集聚对制造业资本回报率的影响,研究发现:生产性服务业集聚抑制了中国城市制造业资本回报率,且存在着显著的负向空间溢出效应;上述抑制效应在产业集聚水平高的I型及以上大城市最为显著,空间溢出效应则在资源竞争激烈的Ⅱ型大城市最为显著;东部城市制造业升级导致了其与生产性服务业的匹配效率下降,而西部城市制造业相对低端导致其对生产性服务业的有效需求不足,因此生产性服务业集聚的影响不显著;中部城市通过承接东部产业转移优化了产业结构,有助于生产服务业集聚的促进作用发挥;生产性服务业集聚的影响还存在着"低端促进"和"高端抑制"的细分行业特征。机制分析结果显示:生产性服务业集聚一方面推动了资本和劳动等要素流向城市,从而导致城市资源要素过度集聚,加剧制造业资本深化程度,降低资本边际产出,进而降低资本回报率;另一方面导致制造业资本和劳动等要素流向服务业,从而抑制制造业资本回报率。Based on Chinese urban data,this paper has empirically analyzed the impact of productive service industries agglomeration on the capital return on manufacturing industry using spatial econometric model.Conclusions are as follows:the productive service industries agglomeration has inhibited the capital return on manufacturing industry,and there is a significant negative spatial spillover effect;the inhibition effect is most significant in the type I and above large cities with high level of industrial agglomeration,and the spatial spillover effect is most significant in typeⅡlarge cities with fierce resource competition;the upgrading of manufacturing industry in eastern cities has led to the decline of its matching efficiency with productive service industries,and the low-end industrial characteristic of cities in the west has resulted in their insufficient effective demand for productive service industries,therefore,the impact of the productive service industries agglomeration is insignificant;the industrial structure of the central cities has been optimized by taking over the industries transferred from the east,which has helped the productive service industries agglomeration to play its promotion role;the impact of the productive service industries agglomeration has also shown the finely categorized characteristics of"low-end promotion"and"high-end inhibition";mechanism analysis results have revealed that on the one hand,the productive service industries agglomeration has promoted the flow of capital and labor to cities,which has led to the excessive agglomeration of urban resource elements and has intensified the deepening of capital in manufacturing industry,reduced the marginal output of capital,which has in turn reduced the return on capital;on the other hand,it has led to the flow of manufacturing capital,labor and other factors to the service industry,thus inhibiting the return on capital in manufacturing industry.

关 键 词：生产性服务业集聚 空间溢出效应 制造业 资本回报率 拥挤效应 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]