河道堰塞生命损失评估方法研究  

Study on the evaluation method of life loss due to river clogging

作　　者：胡亮 钱亚俊[2] 傅中志[2] 魏迎奇[3] 钟启明[2] HU Liang;QIAN Yajun;FU Zhongzhi;WEI Yingqi;ZHONG Qiming(Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Key Laboratory of Failure Mechanism and Safety Control Techniques of Earth-Rock Dam of the Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学,江苏南京210098 [2]南京水利科学研究院水利部土石坝破坏机理与防控技术重点实验室,江苏南京210029 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水运工程学报》2021年第5期58-66,共9页Hydro-Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题资助项目(2018YFC1508604);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目(Y319003,Y320005)。

摘　　要：河道堰塞是一种由地震、降雨等因素导致山体滑坡造成河道堰塞的自然灾害。在河道堰塞灾害造成的众多损失中,风险人口的生命损失最为严重。根据河道堰塞生命损失的致灾机理构建了风险人口、警报时间、理解程度、湖区水位上升速度、风险人口高程、淹没水深等参数在内的评价指标体系,并确立各参数的定量评估方法。同时通过各因素间的作用关系建立由应急疏散网络、淹没水深网络、生命损失定量评估网络3个子网络系统组成的贝叶斯网络模型对河道堰塞生命损失进行评估,并采用牛栏江河道堰塞案例验证了评估方法的合理性。River clogging is a natural disaster caused by landslide which results from earthquake,rainfall and other factors.Among the many losses caused by river clogging disaster,the loss of life is the most serious loss.In this paper,according to the disaster mechanism of life loss because of river clogging,the evaluation index system including risk population,warning time,understanding degree,lake level rising speed,elevation of risk population,submerged depth and other parameters,and the quantitative evaluation method of each parameter is established.At the same time,a bayesian network model,consisting of emergency evacuation network,submerged water depth network and life loss quantitative assessment network,is established through the interaction among various factors to assess the life loss of river weir,and the case of Niulan River weir is used to verify the rationality of the assessment method.

关 键 词：河道堰塞 生命损失 评估 贝叶斯网络 牛栏江 

分 类 号：TV698.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]