气候变化对油松潜在地理分布时空格局的影响  

Simulation of Potential Spatial-temporal Population Dynamics of Pinus tabuliformis under Climate Change

作　　者：唐兴港 袁颖丹[2] 张金池 Tang Xinggang;Yuan Yingdan;Zhang Jinchi(Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学林学院、南方现代林业协同创新中心、江苏省水土保持与生态修复重点实验室,南京210037 [2]南京林业大学,南京210037

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2021年第9期1-7,共7页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

基　　金：江苏省农业科技自主创新资金项目(CX(17)1004);林业公益性行业科研专项(201504406);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)。

摘　　要：根据110个分布点数据和19个环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型模拟气候变化下油松的潜在地理分布的时空格局及其主要影响因子。结果表明:不同气候背景下,MaxEnt模型均取得良好的预测效果;在不同浓度温室气体排放情景下,对预测结果贡献较大的环境因子为年均温、平均日温差、温度季节变化方差和年降水量。当前油松高度适生区主要分布在山东、河北、山西、河南、陕西、宁夏南部、湖北北部、辽宁沿海和甘肃东南部等地区;中度适生区分布以高度适生区为中心向外扩展,同时长江流域的沿途各省区都具有一定的适宜油松分布的条件。除RCP 2.6情景下油松的高度适生区面积有所下降外,未来其分布面积整体将呈现持续增加的趋势,未来江苏和贵州两省将成为油松种植的潜在区域。With 110 occurrence points and 19 environmental variables,MaxEnt model was used to simulate the spatiotemporal pattern of potential geographic distribution of Pinus tabuliformis under climate change,and the environmental factors affecting the distribution of P.tabuliformis were also determined.The results showed that MaxEnt model achieved good prediction results under different climate.The environmental factors that contributed to the prediction results were annual mean temperature,mean diurnal range,temperature seasonality and annual precipitation under different climate emissions scenarios.The highly suitable area of P.tabuliformis are mainly in Shandong,Hebei,Shanxi,Henan,Shanxi,southern Ningxia,northern Hubei,coastal Liaoning and southeast Gansu.The moderately suitable area expanded outward with the center of highly suitable areas.All provinces along the Yangtze River basin have certain suitable conditions for the distribution of P.tabuliformis.Except for the decrease of the highly suitable area under the RCP 2.6 emission scenario,the overall distribution area of P.tabuliformis will continue to increase under the future climate change.In the future,Jiangsu and Guizhou Provinces will become potential areas for the cultivation of P.tabuliformis.

关 键 词：油松 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在种植区 环境因子 

分 类 号：S791.254[农业科学—林木遗传育种]