疫情冲击下经济韧性测度及影响因素分析  

Measurement on Economic Resilience Under Epidemic Impact and Analysis on the Influencing Factors

作　　者：韩爱华[1] 李梦莲 高子桓 Han Aihua;Li Menglian;Gao Zihuan(School of Statistics and Mathematics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学统计与数学学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《统计与决策》2021年第18期85-89,共5页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(18BTJ010);中共贵州省委宣传部重大项目(20GZZB03);湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目(20G028);贵州省教育厅青年科技人才成长项目(黔教合KY字[2018]160号)。

摘　　要：文章基于SARIMA-BP组合模型预测反事实条件下的潜在产出,根据2012-2019年的月度数据测度我国31个省份在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下的经济韧性,利用倾向得分匹配双重差分方法探索影响经济韧性的因素。结果表明:各省份应对新冠肺炎疫情冲击时存在差异,西部地区经济韧性较强,东中部地区经济韧性较弱,受到疫情影响大的省份韧性表现较差。新冠肺炎疫情对经济韧性存在冲击,固定资产投资完成额累计增长率和居民消费价格指数对经济韧性有缓冲作用,增加投资进一步刺激消费市场复苏能够有效提升经济韧性。规模以上工业亏损企业增减率则对区域经济韧性有显著的反向冲击作用,促进了经济韧性的提升。This paper is based on the SARIMA-BP combined model to predict the potential output under counterfactual conditions, and then measures the economic resilience of China’s 31 provinces under the impact of COVID-19 epidemic according to monthly data from 2012 to 2019. Finally, the paper uses the propensity score matching difference-in-difference to explore the factors influencing economic resilience. The results are as stated below: There are differences among provinces in coping with the impact of COVID-19 epidemic, with the western region showing strong economic resilience, the eastern and central regions weak economic resilience, and the provinces heavily affected by COVID-19 epidemic showing poor resilience. COVID-19 epidemic has an impact on economic resilience. Both the cumulative growth rate of completed fixed asset investment and the consumer price index have a buffer effect on economic resilience. Increasing investment to further stimulate the recovery of the consumer market can effectively enhance economic resilience. The coefficient of increase and decrease of industrial loss-making enterprises above scale has a significant reverse impact on regional economic resilience and promotes the improvement of economic resilience.

关 键 词：经济韧性 SARIMA-BP组合模型 PSM-DID组合模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]