中国扶贫宏观经济效应的理论与实证  

Theoretical and Empirical Study on Macroeconomic Effects of Poverty Alleviation in China

作　　者：齐晓雨 闫里鹏 牟俊霖[3] Qi Xiaoyu;Yan Lipeng;Mu Junlin(Department of Population and Labor Economics,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China;Business School,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;School of Labor Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学人口与劳动经济系,北京102488 [2]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [3]首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《统计与决策》2021年第18期90-94,共5页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：在政府的外部投入逐步取消之后,已经脱贫的人口是否会出现返贫的现象呢?为了回答这一问题,文章把中国扶贫实践的经济本质归纳为帮助贫困人口实现农业和非农部门就业,将其融入动态一般均衡模型,通过模拟分析发现,以就业为核心的扶贫经由就业、收入、消费、投资渠道对人均GDP产生了正向促进作用,这表明扶贫促进了人均GDP增长,而人均GDP的增长反过来巩固了扶贫成就,最后采用面板中介模型进行了验证。中国的扶贫以帮助贫困人口实现就业为抓手,通过贫困人口和非贫困人口就业、收入、消费以及投资的增长,推动了人均GDP的增长,进而巩固了扶贫成果,实现了扶贫与宏观经济发展之间的良性循环。After the government’s external input is phased out, will the population that has been lifted out of poverty return to poverty? In order to answer this question, this paper boils the economic nature of poverty alleviation in China to helping poor people to achieve employment in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, and integrates it into the dynamic general equilibrium model. Through simulation analysis, it is found that poverty alleviation with employment as the core has a positive effect on per capita GDP through employment, income, consumption and investment channels, which indicates that poverty alleviation promotes the growth of per capita GDP, and the growth of per capita GDP strengthens poverty alleviation achievements in turn. Finally, the panel mediation model is used to make verification. Poverty alleviation in China focuses on helping poor people to find jobs.Through increasing employment, income, consumption and investment of poor and non-poor people, the per capita GDP growth has been promoted, and the achievements of poverty alleviation have been consolidated, thus achieving a virtuous cycle between poverty alleviation and macroeconomic development.

关 键 词：扶贫 动态一般均衡模型 宏观经济效应 

分 类 号：F120.4[经济管理—世界经济] F061.3