油价波动下俄罗斯货币政策调控效果研究  

Research on the Effect of Russian Monetary Policy Regulation under the Background of Oil Price Fluctuation

作　　者：刘文翠[1] 罗瑾 陈学军[2] LIU Wen-cui;LUO Jin;CHEN Xue-jun(School of Finance,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830000,China;School of Economics,Central South University of Forestry and Technology,Changsha 410004,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [2]中南林业科技大学经济学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《税务与经济》2021年第5期100-107,共8页Taxation and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(项目编号:19BGJ069);新疆财经大学项目(项目编号:XJUFE2016K011)。

摘　　要：通过构建"数量型"和"价格型"俄罗斯货币政策函数,考察油价波动背景下货币政策的调控效果可以发现,尽管俄罗斯货币政策目标的名义锚从汇率转变为通货膨胀率,但是货币政策仍然关注汇率波动。在俄罗斯经济发展的不同阶段,"数量型"和"价格型"的货币政策调控优势各异,其中,货币供给扩张和降息均对产出有正向调控效果;2012年之前通胀对利率冲击呈现较强的时变特征,2012年之后利率反作用于通胀的效果明显;货币供给对汇率有正向的影响,利率对汇率的冲击正负交错,货币供给和利率对油价的影响也具有一定的时变特征。这也从一定程度上说明面对多元的货币政策目标,俄央行政策选择面临的难题。A study is conducted in this paper to examine the regulatory effects of monetary policy in the context of oil price fluctuations by the construction of"quantity-based"and"price-based"Russian monetary policy functions.The result reveals that although the nominal anchor of Russian monetary policy objectives has transformed from the exchange rate to the inflation rate,the monetary policy still pays attention to exchange rate fluctuations.At different stages of economic development,the advantages of"quantity-based"and"price-based"monetary policy adjustments are different.Among them,money supply expansion and interest rate cuts have positive effects on output.The inflation had a strong impact on interest rates before 2012.Afterwards,the effect of interest rates on inflation is obvious.The money supply has a positive effect on the exchange rate.Sometimes,the impact of interest rates on the exchange rate is positive;sometimes,the impact of interest rates on the exchange rate is negative.The influence of money supply and interest rates on oil prices also has certain time-variant characteristics,which means that it is difficult for Russian Central Bank to make policy choice to a certain extent when faced with multiple monetary policy objectives.

关 键 词：油价 俄罗斯 货币政策 通货膨胀 汇率 

分 类 号：F831.5[经济管理—金融学]