中国现代服务业高质量发展的空间分异及趋势演进  

Spatial Differences and Trend Evolution of High-quality Development of Modern Service Industries in China

作　　者：陈景华[1] 徐金 CHEN Jinghua;XU Jin(School of Economics,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2021年第11期61-76,共16页East China Economic Management

基　　金：山东省社会科学基金项目“山东省现代服务业高质量发展的时空演进及路径研究”(20CJJJ16);山东财经大学研究生创新项目“中国服务业高质量发展水平测度、差异成因及趋势演进研究”(Y20201135);山东省研究生教育质量提升计划“‘双一流’背景下经济学研究生‘本硕博’一体化培养机制研究”(SDYY18054)。

摘　　要：文章基于新发展理念构建中国现代服务业高质量发展综合评价指标体系,利用熵权法对2004—2018年中国现代服务业高质量发展水平进行测度,并借助Dagum基尼系数群组分解、Kernel密度估计方法和Markov链方法考察了现代服务业高质量发展的空间分异及演进态势。研究发现:中国现代服务业高质量发展水平总体不高但呈缓慢上升态势,共享与协调发展相对较好,持续性指数波动上升,但创新性和开放性指数还处于较低水平;现代服务业高质量发展空间非均衡性特征显著,东部沿海、北部沿海经济区表现优异,大西南、大西北发展滞后;现代服务业高质量发展的空间差异整体呈缩小趋势,区域间差异是其主要来源;北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海和大西南经济区存在明显的极化现象;现代服务业高质量发展呈现俱乐部趋同现象,某地区服务业高质量发展受其邻域水平影响。Based on the new development concept,this paper constructs a comprehensive index system of high-quality development of China’s modern service industries,measures the high-quality development level of modern service industries from2004 to 2018 by using entropy weight method,and investigates the spatial differentiation and evolution trend by using Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation method,and Markov chain method.It is found that the overall high-quality development level of China’s modern service industry is not high,but it shows a slow upward trend,the sharing and coordinated development are relatively good,and the sustainability index shows a fluctuating rise,but the indexes of innovation and openness are still at a low level;the spatial imbalance of high-quality development of modern service industry is significant,the eastern coastal and northern coastal economic zones perform well,and the development of the southwest and northwest lags behind;the spatial difference of high-quality development of modern service industry shows a narrowing trend as a whole,and the regional difference is the main source;there are obvious polarization phenomena in the northern coast,the eastern coast,the southern coast,and the southwest economic zone;the high-quality development of modern service industry presents the phenomenon of club convergence.The high-quality development of service industry in a region is affected by its neighborhood level.

关 键 词：现代服务业 高质量发展 新发展理念 Kernel密度估计 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：F063.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F124