中国省域新型城镇化、乡村振兴与经济增长质量耦合协调发展及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Coupling and Coordinated Development and Influencing Factors of New Urbanization,Rural Revitalization and Economic Growth Quality in Chinese Provinces

作　　者：徐雪 王永瑜 Xu Xue;Wang Yongyu

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计学院,兰州730030 [2]兰州财经大学金融学院/甘肃金融协同创新中心,兰州730030

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2021年第10期13-26,共14页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目“甘肃省绿色发展的新业态与实现路径研究”(19YB019),项目负责人:王永瑜;兰州财经大学科研创新团队“环境经济统计与分析创新团队”,项目负责人:王永瑜;兰州财经大学丝绸之路经济研究院一般项目“新时代西部大开发地区乡村振兴水平测度及影响因素研究”(JYYY202005),项目负责人:徐雪。

摘　　要：基于新型城镇化、乡村振兴和经济增长质量的丰富内涵,构建了新型城镇化—乡村振兴—经济增长质量耦合协调评价指标体系,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型对2011-2018年中国31省区市新型城镇化—乡村振兴—经济增长质量三系统综合发展水平及耦合协调度进行量化,并结合面板Tobit模型对耦合协调度的影响因素进行研究。结果表明:(1)31省区市新型城镇化—乡村振兴—经济增长质量三系统综合发展水平呈现显著的区域差异,其中,三系统综合水平都相对较高的省区市主要分布在东部地区,而东北、中部和西部地区三系统综合水平较低,绝大多数低于全国平均水平。(2)全国三系统耦合协调度整体上偏低,研究期内呈现缓慢上升并趋于稳定的发展趋势。从空间演变来看,耦合协调度具有显著的空间分异规律,呈现"东部>中部>东北>西部"的发展格局,但耦合协调度的省际差异在逐步缩小,均衡发展趋势有所显现。(3)在全国层面,政府能力、交通基础设施水平、金融发展水平、产业结构、人口增长及劳动力质量对三系统耦合协调度具有显著的正向促进作用,而城乡收入差距则不利于三系统的协调发展。(4)三系统耦合协调度的影响因素具有明显的区域异质性。Based on the rich connotation of new-type urbanization, rural revitalization and economic growth quality, a coupling and coordinated evaluation index system of new-type urbanization-rural revitalization-economic growth quality is constructed, the comprehensive development level and coupling coordination degree of the three systems of new urbanization, rural revitalization and economic growth quality of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2011 to 2018 are quantified by using entropy method and coupling coordination degree model, the influence factors of coupling coordination degree are studied by using panel Tobit model.The results show that:(1)The comprehensive development level of the three systems of new urbanization, rural revitalization and economic growth quality in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities presents significant regional differences, the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities with relatively high comprehensive level of the three systems are mainly distributed in the eastern region, while the comprehensive level of the three systems is relatively low in the northeast, central and western regions, most of which are lower than the national average level.(2)The coordination degree of three-system coupling is low in the whole country, and the trend of development is slowly rising and tends to be stable during the research period.From the point of view of spatial evolution, the coupling coordination degree has the remarkable spatial differentiation law, presenting the development pattern"the East >the Middle >he Northeast >the West",but the provincial difference of the coupling coordination degree gradually reduces, the balanced development tendency appears.(3)At the national level, government capacity, the level of transportation infrastructure, the level of financial development, industrial structure, population growth and the quality of labor force have a significant positive effect on the coordination degree of the three systems coupling, the income gap between urban and r

关 键 词：新型城镇化 乡村振兴 经济增长质量 耦合协调 影响因素 

分 类 号：F320[经济管理—产业经济]