农业信用担保业务供给意愿及其概率预测  

Willingness for Agricultural Credit Guarantee Service Supply and Its Probability Prediction

作　　者：胡杰 李晋阳 罗剑朝[1,2] HU Jie;LI Jinyang;LUO Jianchao(School of Economics and Management,Northwest A&F University;Shaanxi Rural Finance Research Center,Yangling,Shaanxi 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院 [2]陕西省农村金融研究中心,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2021年第6期115-125,共11页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71573210);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科重大培育项目(2452019155)。

摘　　要：金融机构供给农业信用担保业务意愿的高低将直接影响农业信用担保体系的构建和完善。基于宁夏西吉和江苏阜宁金融机构187个客户经理的调研数据,通过Oprobit模型实证研究金融机构供给农业信用担保业务的意愿及其影响因素,并进一步预测金融机构开展该业务的概率。结果表明:(1)63.64%的客户经理愿意积极供给农业信用担保业务。(2)担保机构业务规模、内部控制、风险防范和农地规模化程度、农业资产价值、被担保人信用水平以及业务操作流程规范程度、政策扶持和担保体系完善程度等因素与客户经理供给意愿正向相关,这一结果在用Bioprobit模型和CMP方法检验后依然稳健。(3)给定其他变量,各解释变量取特定值时,客户经理供给农业信用担保业务意愿的概率呈"倒U型",且两地客户经理的供给意愿概率存在一定差异。据此,建议完善农业信用担保业务政策,加大政府财政资金投入;重视农户异质性和地方金融环境差异,因地制宜地开展农业信用担保业务。The willingness of financial institutions to provide agricultural credit guarantee services will directly affect the construction and improvement of the agricultural credit guarantee system.Based on the survey data of 187 customer managers in financial institutions in Xiji County of Ningxia and Funing County of Jiangsu,this paper uses the Oprobit model to empirically study the willingness of financial institutions to provide agricultural credit guarantee services and its influencing factors,and further predict the probability of financial institutions to carry out the business.The results show that:(1)63.64%of customer managers are willing to actively provide agricultural credit guarantee services.(2)The business scale,internal control,and risk prevention of guarantee institutions;the degree of scale of agricultural land,the value of agricultural assets,the credit level of the guaranteed person;the degree of standardization of business operation procedures,policy support,and the degree of perfection of the guarantee system are positively correlated with the supply willingness of account managers,and this result remains robust after being tested by the Bioprobit model and CMP method.(3)Given other variables,when each explanatory variable takes a specific value,the probability of the customer manager’s willingness to provide agricultural credit guarantee services is in an“inverted U-shape”,and there is a certain difference in the probability of supply willingness of customer managers in the two counties.Accordingly,it is recommended to improve agricultural credit guarantee service policies,increase government financial investment;pay attention to the heterogeneity of farmers and differences in local financial environments,and develop agricultural credit guarantee business in accordance with local conditions.

关 键 词：农业信用担保 供给意愿 Oprobit模型 Bioprobit模型 CMP方法 

分 类 号：F323.9[经济管理—产业经济]