新冠疫情对禽肉价格的冲击效应研究——基于替代品相对价格视角  

Impact of COVID-19 on Poultry Meat Prices--From the Perspective of Relative Price of Substitutes

作　　者：谭莹[1] 肖戴敏 TAN Ying;XIAO Dai Min(School of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642;School of Mathematics and Information,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学经济管理学院,广东广州510642 [2]华南农业大学数学与信息学院,广东广州510642

出　　处：《南方农村》2021年第5期32-37,50,共7页South China Rural Area

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“环境规制下的生猪产业区域布局与转移:路径、机理及溢出效应”(71973046);广东省自然科学基金面上项目“减排背景下广东省生猪生产布局转移与扩散效应分析”(2019A1515011479);广东省现代产业体系生猪创新团队(2021KJ126)。

摘　　要：2020年新冠疫情对我国主要的禽肉类价格产生巨大的短期冲击。本文借助百度舆论指数,运用断点检验和误差修正模型研究新冠疫情对我国禽肉价格的冲击效应。结果表明,新冠疫情爆发前,猪肉和鸡肉价格存在长期稳定的替代关系;新冠疫情爆发后,禽肉价格序列出现了两个时间断点:一个是2020年2月12日,另一个是2020年6月10日,意味着疫情对禽肉价格的影响维持了4个月左右;在疫情的冲击下,猪肉和鸡肉价格均有所下降,猪肉价格下降幅度控制在10.5%以内,鸡肉价格下降幅度控制在5.2%。我们应该将疫情等因素列入到预警系统中,以检测畜禽类价格的影响。In 2020,COVID-19 had a huge short-term impact on the main poultry prices in China.With the help of Baidu's public opinion index,we use breakpoint test and error correction model to study the impact of COVID-19 on poultry prices in China.The results showed that there was a long-term stable substitution relationship between pork and chicken prices before the outbreak of COVID-19.After the outbreak of COVID-19,there were two breakpoints in the poultry price sequence:one was February 12,2020 and the other was June 10,2020,which meant that the impact of the epidemic on poultry prices lasted for about 4 months.Under the impact of the epidemic,the prices of pork and chicken have decreased,with the decline of pork prices controlled within 10.5%and chicken prices controlled at 5.2%.We should include the epidemic situation and other factors in the early warning system to detect the impact of livestock and poultry prices.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 禽肉价格 冲击效应 断点检验 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]