基于潜在类别分析的城市轨道交通通勤市场细分研究  

Market Segmentation of Urban Rail Transit Commuter Based on Latent Class Analysis

作　　者：周伊冰 霍娅敏[1,2,3] 张奕源 ZHOU Yibing;HUO Yamin;ZHANG Yiyuan(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China;Key Laboratory of Big Data Application Technologies for Comprehensive Transport,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 611756,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都611756 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程实验室,四川成都611756 [3]西南交通大学综合交通大数据应用技术国家工程实验室,四川成都611756

出　　处：《综合运输》2021年第9期9-16,共8页China Transportation Review

摘　　要：轨道交通客流量是TOD开发模式的关键支撑。为了分析影响轨道交通分担率的内在原因,本文以轨道交通车站附近的居民为研究对象,利用潜在类别模型进行市场细分,研究影响不同人群通勤选择行为的内在机理和偏好异质性,为轨道交通车站周边的交通设施规划布局提供了思路。以成都市为实例开展问卷调查,建立潜在类别模型并利用Latentgold5.0软件进行求解,结果显示:轨道交通通勤市场可以划分为"商务需求型"、"追求效率型"、"经济环保型"、"保守型",分类结果误差小于2%,可以有效解释出行者通勤需求的异质性。Rail transit passenger flow is the critical support of TOD development mode. In order to analyze the intrinsic reason of influencing the sharing rate of rail transit, this paper, taking the residents near the rail transit station as the research object, uses the latent class model to segment the market, studies the internal mechanism and preference heterogeneity of different groups of people’s commuting choice behavior, and provides ideas for the planning and layout of transportation facilities around the rail transit station. Taking Chengdu as an example, a questionnaire survey was carried out to establish a latent class model. Solved by the Latentgold 5.0 software, the model results show that the commuter market near rail transit station can be divided into business demand subgroup, efficiency demand subgroup, economic and environmental protection subgroup, and conservative subgroup. The error of results is less than 2%, which can effectively explain the heterogeneity of commuter demand.

关 键 词：城市交通 潜在类别模型 通勤市场 偏好异质性 轨道交通 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]