基于GIS的风暴潮灾害风险预警方法研究  

Research on storm surge disaster risk early warning method based on GIS

作　　者：王喜娜 王先伟[2,3] 黄华兵 刘春霞[4] WANG Xina;WANG Xianwei;HUANG Huabing;LIU Chunxia(Guangdong Eco-Engineering Polytechic,Guangzhou 510520;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275;Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disasters,Guangzhou 510275;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical Marine Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Guangzhou 510641)

机构地区：[1]广东生态工程职业学院,广州510520 [2]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广州510275 [3]广东省公共安全与灾害工程技术研究中心,广州510275 [4]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所,广州510641

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2021年第10期15-20,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41801074、41871085);广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(2019GKTSCX067)。

摘　　要：风暴潮灾害是对沿海地区破坏性巨大的一种海洋灾害,风暴潮灾害监测预警是极为重要的减灾非工程措施。目前,国家海洋环境预报中心发布的风暴潮灾害预警主要是风暴潮增水预警,即增水值是多少,但风暴潮灾害事件的影响取决于风暴增水、增水发生时天文潮位、沿海地形、海堤高程及社会经济分布状况等多方面因素,仅有风暴增水的预警不能直观地预见灾害即将带来的影响。提出基于GIS对风暴潮灾害事件影响进行评估的监测预警方法,并以201604号台风"妮妲"为例进行了说明。首先,通过对天文潮和风暴增水预报获取目标区域潮位预报;然后,基于Flood Area构建风暴潮漫滩淹没模型,对风暴潮漫滩淹没进行仿真模拟;最后,结合淹没范围、深度和社会经济数据,评估风暴潮灾害事件可能导致的受灾人口数和GDP损失,基于风暴潮灾害风险进行预警分级,该方法可以为风暴潮灾害事件的应急管理提供决策支持。Storm surge is one of the most severe marine disasters in China. Early warning is a very important non-structural measure for disaster prevention and mitigation. Early warning information of storm surges issued in National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center only contains the water level variations caused by tropical cyclones. The severity of storm surge disaster is determined by the height of storm surge,the phase or the height of astronomical tide,coastal topography,embankment height and socio-economic distribution. Only the early warning of storm surge can not directly predict the impact of the disaster. A monitoring and early warning method for evaluating the impact of storm surge disaster events based on GIS is proposed,which is illustrated by taking typhoon“Nida”as an example. The total tide level prediction in the target area is obtained through the prediction of astronomical tide and storm surge;The storm surge floodplain inundation model is constructed based on the Flood Area to simulate the storm surge floodplain inundation;Combined with the inundation range,depth and socio-economic data,the number of affected people and GDP loss that may be caused by storm surge disaster events are evaluated,and the early warning classification is carried out based on storm surge disaster risk. This method can provide decision support for the emergency management of storm surge disaster events.

关 键 词：风暴潮 GIS 灾害风险预警 

分 类 号：P731.23[天文地球—海洋科学]