地方政府隐性债务违约风险的评估与化解--基于多维偿债能力框架的实证分析  

Assessment and Resolution of Local Government Implicit Debt Default Risk under the Framework of Multidimensional Solvency

作　　者：洪源[1] 阳敏 吕鑫 孟然然 HONG Yuan;YANG Min;LV Xin;MENG Ranran(School of Economy and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China;School of Accounting,Hunan University of Finance and Economics,Changsha 410205,China;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006 [2]湖南财政经济学院会计学院,湖南长沙410205 [3]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《中国软科学》2021年第9期151-162,共12页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673077);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目(21YJC790045、17YJC870003);湖南省哲学社科基金一般项目(16YBA241)

摘　　要：在采用投资侧和融资侧两种思路对我国地方政府隐性债务规模进行系统估测的基础上,设立多维偿债能力框架来构建相应的KMV修正模型,对地方政府隐性债务违约风险进行实证评估。研究发现:(1)当多维偿债能力乐观情形取值时,2018-2020年30个省(自治区、直辖市)的隐性债务违约风险属于基本可控范围内,但当多维偿债能力保守情形取值时,隐性债务违约率有了大幅提高,面临着较明显的违约风险;(2)在考虑债务展期和利率调整的债务重组之后,隐性债务违约率都有了大幅的下降,这表明债务展期能实现存量隐性债务偿还中"以时间换空间"的目的,进而有效降低债务短期违约风险;(3)2018-2022年三类偿债能力的不同期望增长率变化对隐性债务违约风险有着不同的动态影响,按影响程度从小到大的顺序依次为项目经营收益、预算可偿债财力、地方可处置存量国有资产。根据上述结论,提出"十四五"期间有效化解地方政府隐性债务风险的分类步骤策略建议。Based on the two ideas of investment side and financing side,this paper makes a systematic estimation of the implicit debt scale of local government,and establishes the multidimensional solvency framework to construct the KMV modified model,then carries out the empirical evaluation of local government implicit debt default risk.The results of the study include the following aspects:The implicit debt default risk of the 30 provinces in 2018-2020 is basically controllable,but when the solvency is conservative,the implicit debt default rate has been greatly increased,facing a relatively obvious default risk.After considering debt extension and interest rate adjustment,the implicit debt default rate has significantly decreased,which indicates that debt extension can effectively reducing the short-term default risk of debt.The change of different expected growth rates of three types of solvency had different dynamic effects on the implicit debt default risk.The order of impacts from small to large is project operating income,local government financial resources and local disposable stock of state-owned assets.For the strategic steps to resolve the hidden debt risk during the 14th Five Year Plan period,we should adopt the classification and step-by-step solution method.

关 键 词：地方政府隐性债务 多维偿债能力 违约风险 KMV修正模型 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]