应用中断时间序列评价福建省乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划后控制乙脑发病率的效果  

Effect of JE vaccine inclusion in immunization program on JE incidence by interrupted time-series analysis,Fujian province

作　　者：黄荣东 张冬娟[1] 林光灿[1] HUANG Rong-dong;ZHANG Dong-juan;LIN Guang-can(Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Fuzhou,Fujian 350001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]福建省疾病预防控制中心,福建福州350001

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2021年第9期650-652,656,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：2020年福建省医学创新课题资助计划(项目编号:2020CXA019)。

摘　　要：目的了解福建省将流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑)疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划前后乙脑发病率的变化,评估该策略对控制乙脑发病率的效果。方法利用福建省1989~2020年乙脑发病率数据资料,以2005年作为乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划的干预时间点,通过中断时间序列(ITS)拟合分段的多重线性回归模型对干预前后的乙脑发病率水平及斜率变化进行分析。结果1989~2020年福建省年均乙脑发病率为0.2759/10万;中断时间序列分析分析结果显示:乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划前(1989~2004年),年均发病率为0.5025/10万,呈下降趋势,下降斜率为0.0782(P<0.01);乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划后,即2005年的乙脑发病率比乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划实施前减少了1.0425/10万(P<0.05);乙脑疫苗纳入免疫规划后(2005~2020年),年均发病率为0.0493/10万,呈下降趋势,下降斜率为0.0040(P<0.01)。结论福建省将乙脑疫苗纳入扩大免疫规划,实现了对乙脑疫情长期的有效防控。Objective To analyze the changes of Japanese encephalitis(JE)incidence before and after JE vaccine was included in the expanded immunization program in Fujian province during 1989-2020,so as to evaluate the influence of the strategy on controlling the incidence of JE.Methods Using the data of JE incidence in Fujian province during 1989-2020,and 2005 was taken as the intervention point,the level and slope of JE incidence before and after intervention were analyzed by interrupt time series(ITS)fitting piecewise multiple linear regression model.Results The average annual incidence of JE in Fujian province during 1989-2020 was 0.2759/10^(5).The results of interruption time series analysis showed that before JE vaccine was included in the immunization program(1989-2004),the average annual incidence was 0.5025/10^(5) ,showing a downward trend,with a downward slope of 0.0782(P<0.01).After JE vaccine was included in the immunization program,the incidence of JE in 2005 was 1.0425/10^(5) less than the before stage(P<0.05).After JE vaccine was included in the immunization program(2005-2020),the average annual incidence was 0.0493/10^(5) ,showing a downward trend,with a downward slope of 0.0040(P<0.01).Conclusion JE vaccine being included in the expanded immunization program has achieved long-term effective prevention and control of JE epidemic in Fujian province.

关 键 词：乙脑 疫苗 中断时间序列 扩大免疫规划 

分 类 号：R512.32[医药卫生—内科学]