人口老龄化对省域产业结构调整的影响——以云南为例  

The Impact of Population Aging on Provincial Industrial Structure Adjustment:Empirical Evidence from Yunnan Province

作　　者：马子红 姚焱 Ma Zihong;Yao Yan(School of Economics,Yunnan University;Institute of Yunnan Digital Economy,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院 [2]云南大学云南数字经济研究院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《学术探索》2021年第10期92-102,共11页Academic Exploration

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(10CJL044);云南大学国家社科基金培育项目(21YNUGSP035);云南省研究生创新人才项目(C176230200)。

摘　　要：省域产业发展与人口变动密切相关,人口老龄化从劳动力供给和产品需求等层面影响产业结构调整。本文选取云南省1987~2020年时间序列数据和第七次全国人口普查数据进行实证研究,对人口老龄化影响省域产业结构调整的作用机制进行分析,结果表明,人口老龄化会在短期内促进省域产业结构的合理化且有利于产业结构的高级化;人口老龄化影响第三产业结构调整的作用最为显著。因此,需要高度重视人口老龄化对省域产业结构调整带来的冲击,并制定出更具实操性的应对举措。同时,需要注意长期内少儿抚养比对省域产业结构的影响更为显著。There is a close relationship between provincial industrial development and population change.Population aging can affect industrial structure adjustment through labor supply and product demand.Based on the time series data of Yunnan Province from 1987 to 2020 and the data of the seventh national census,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the mechanism of population aging affecting the adjustment of provincial industrial structure.The research shows that:in the short term,population aging will promote the rationalization of provincial industrial structure and be conducive to the upgrading of industrial structure;and in the long run,the child rearing ratio has a more significant impact on the upgrading and rationalization of provincial industrial structure.And the aging of the population has the most significant effect on the adjustment of the tertiary industry structure.Therefore,we need to attach great importance to the impact of population aging on the adjustment of provincial industrial structure,and formulate more practical countermeasures.

关 键 词：省域产业结构 人口老龄化 第三产业 少儿抚养比 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]