基于洪水预报系统误差反演的多河段联合校正方法  

Multi-reach joint correction method based on flood forecasting system error inversion

作　　者：黄一昕 梁忠民[1] 胡义明[1] 李彬权[1] 王军[1] Huang Yixin;Liang Zhongmin;Hu Yiming;Li Binquan;Wang Jun(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《湖泊科学》2021年第6期1914-1924,共11页Journal of Lake Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41730750);中央高校基本科研业务费、江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX21_0507);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC0407206,2016YFC0402709)联合资助.

摘　　要：提出一种基于洪水预报误差系统反演的多河段联合校正方法.采用马斯京根法矩阵方程描述多河段多区间入流的河道汇流过程,基于动力系统反演理论建立洪水预报误差的递推方程,最后利用修正后的多河段状态变量经演算得到预报断面的洪水过程,进而达到多河段联合校正目的.对大渡河上游的应用示例结果表明:多河段联合校正方法考虑了河系中断面间的水力联系及预报误差在时程上的传递规律,可充分利用上游多断面实测和校正信息进行下游预报断面的误差修正,因此具有更高的校正精度和稳定性.A multi-reach joint correction method based on flood forecasting system error inversion is proposed.Maskingen matrix equation is used to describe the confluence process of multi-reach and multi-interval inflow.The recursive equation of flood prediction error is established based on the dynamic system inversion theory.Finally,the flood process of the predicted section is calculated by using the modified state variables of multi-reach,to achieve the purpose of joint correction of multi-reach.The results of an application example in the upper reaches of Dadu River show that the multi-reach joint correction method considers the hydraulic connection between sections in the river system and the transmission law of the forecast error in time history.The proposed method makes full use of the upstream section measurement and correction of information downstream in the cross section of the forecast error correction.Therefore,this method has a high calibration accuracy and stability.

关 键 词：洪水预报 误差修正 多河段联合校正 马斯京根法矩阵模型 系统反演 复杂河流系统 大渡河流域 

分 类 号：P338.6[天文地球—水文科学]