对外直接投资、金融发展与产业结构升级  

OFDI,Financial Development and Industry Structure Upgrading

作　　者：章志华 唐礼智[2] 孙林[3] ZHANG Zhihua;TANG Lizhi;SUN Lin(School of Economics,Guangdong University of Finance and Economics,Guangzhou,Guangdong,510320;School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen,Fujian,361005;Jinan Branch,People's Bank of China,Jinan,Shandong,250021)

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学经济学院,广东广州510320 [2]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005 [3]中国人民银行济南分行,山东济南250021

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2021年第5期96-109,共14页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“‘一带一路’下中国境外投资促进过剩产能转移的效应评估研究”(17YJC910010);广东省自然科学基金项目“城市空间结构与经济增长研究”(2018A030313453)。

摘　　要：本文选取我国2004—2017年30个省区市的面板数据,借助改进的泰尔指数法测算了我国30个省区市的产业结构合理化指数,并在采用Moran指数检验到产业结构合理化的空间自相关后,构建空间杜宾模型实证检验了对外直接投资对产业结构合理化的门槛效应。研究结果表明:当金融发展水平较低时,对外直接投资对产业结构合理化的影响为负;只有当金融发展水平大于门槛值后,对外直接投资对产业结构合理化才有明显的促进作用。进一步分析发现:东部地区对外直接投资对产业结构合理化的影响存在金融发展的门槛效应;只有当金融发展水平跨过门槛值后,东部地区对外直接投资对产业结构合理化才有明显的促进作用。Based on the thirty provincial data of China from 2004 to 2017,this article calculated the index of industrial structure rationalization. Moran index was used to test the spatial correlation of the industrial structure rationalization,and constructed a spatial Dubin model to empirically test the impact of OFDI on the industrial structure rationalization under the different levels of financial development. The conclusion shows that when the level of financial development is lower than the threshod,the impact of OFDI on industrial structure rationalization is negative;when the level of financial development exceeds the threshold, OFDI will promote industrial structure rationalization. Further analysis shows that when financial development exceeds the threshold,OFDI of eastern regions will promote industrial structure rationalization remarkably.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 金融发展 产业结构升级 空间杜宾模型 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]