污水处理PPP项目收益优化的系统动力学仿真研究基于多方联动视角  

System Dynamics Simulation Study on Benefit Optimization of PPP Project in Sewage Treatment Based on Multi-Party Linkage Perspective

作　　者：宋健民[1] 石俊姣 张樵民 SONG Jian-min;SHI Jun-jiao;ZHANG Qiao min(School of Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Civil Engineering and Transportation Engineering,Henan University of Urban Construction,Pingdingshan 467002,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学土木工程学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南城建学院土木与交通工程学院,河南平顶山467002

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2021年第19期220-234,共15页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(18BGL057);中建七局科技研发项目(CSCEC7b-2018-Z-29)。

摘　　要：在污水处理PPP项目实践过程中,其收益水平直接决定了项目的成败.为了实现参与方的利益诉求,通过对众多文献归纳与总结,遴选出24个影响污水处理PPP项目收益的因素,并利用解释结构模型建立了层级关系,构建了基于系统动力学的收益优化模型,实现特许价格、特许期、政府补贴等因素对项目收益的灵敏度分析.最后通过案例分析表明:当实际经营过程收益出现偏差时,通过多方联动与策略调整,能够在满足参与方需求下实现污水处理PPP项目收益最大化.为PPP模式下污水处理项目的规范化运作提供了一种新思路.In the practice about the PPP project of sewage treatment,the income level directly determines the success or failure of the project.In order to realize the interest demand of the participants,24 factors which influence the income of the PPP project of sewage treatment were selected by summing up and summarizing many literatures,and the hierarchical relationship was established by using the interpretative structural model,a revenue optimization model based on System dynamics is constructed,realize the sensitivity analysis of concession price,concession period,government subsidy and other factors to project revenue.Finally,a case study shows that the income maximization of sewage treatment PPP project can be realized by multi-party linkage and strategy adjustment when the actual operating process income deviation occurs.It provides a new idea for the standardized operation of sewage treatment project in PPP mode.

关 键 词：污水处理项目 PPP模式 解释结构模型 系统动力学 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济] F224[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X703