基于CFSv2的四川省延伸期三类天气过程预报研究  

Forecast Research on Extended Range Weather of Three Kinds of Weather Process for Sichuan Province based on CFSv2

作　　者：董雪峰 赖欣 杨淑群[2] 王映思 韩亚东 DONG Xuefeng;LAI Xin;YANG Shuqun;WANG Yingsi;HAN Yadong(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Joint Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu,610225,China;Climate Center of Sichuan Meteorological Bureau,Chengdu,610072,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室气候与环境变化联合实验室,四川成都610225 [2]四川省气象局气候中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2021年第4期413-424,共12页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42075081、41905008);四川省科技计划资助项目(2019YJ0359);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室资助项目(SCQXKJZD2019002);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室资助项目(2018-重点-07)。

摘　　要：为建立四川省延伸期高温、降水和强降温过程的预报模型,利用第二代气候预报系统(climate forecast system version 2,CFSv2)预报的延伸期逐日环流场和四川省台站逐日降水、最高温度和最低温度,采用动力应用法,通过把预报环流场按预报时效逐日分组,以各组预报环流场与站点要素同期变化显著相关区域的环流场作为预报因子,逐日建立各站点的多因子线性预报方程。将站点预报插值为格点预报,得到四川省延伸期逐日降水、高温和强降温格点预报。3次预报试验和回报结果表明:该方法能够提前11~30天报出大型天气的主要发生时段、落区和强度。该方法对高温和强降温过程的预报效果比降水预报好,随着预报提前时间增加,3种要素预报效果逐渐降低。研究结果对延伸期精细化气象服务具有重要参考价值。In order to establish the forecast model of the extended range process of high temperature,precipitation and strong cooling of Sichuan Province,the daily atmospheric circulation forecast data of the second climate forecast system version 2(CFSv2) during extended range and observation data of stations in Sichuan Province are selected.Using interpretation of numerical models products,a daily forecast model of the precipitation,high temperature in summer and strong cooling in winter during the extended range is established.By Grouping the atmospheric circulation forecast data of CFSv2 by daily according to the lead time,and selecting circulation forecast data of the region where atmosphere circulation forecast data and site data are significantly related at the same time of each group as forecast factors,daily multi-factor linear forecast equations for each station are established.Then the site forecasts are interpolated into grid forecasts of daily high temperature,precipitation and strong cooling of extended range.The three forecast experiments and the results of reforecast show that,this method can capture the main period,falling area and intensity of large weather 11-30 days in advance.The forecast effect of this method on the process of high temperature and strong cooling is better than that of precipitation.With the leading time increases,the forecast effect decreases.The results of this study have important reference value for fine meteorological service in extended period.

关 键 词：气象学 延伸期预报 四川 CFSv2 动力应用法 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]