Identification of the sensitive area for targeted observation to improve vertical thermal structure prediction in summer in the Yellow Sea  

作　　者：Huiqin Hu Jingyi Liu Lianglong Da Wuhong Guo Kun Liu Baolong Cui 

机构地区：[1]Navy Submarine Academy,Qingdao 266199,China [2]Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao),Qingdao 266237,China

出　　处：《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》2021年第7期77-87,共11页海洋学报（英文版）

基　　金：The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41705081 and 41906005;the Innovation Special Zone Project under contract No.18-H863-05-ZT-001-012-06;the Open Project Fund of the Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)under contract No.2019A05.

摘　　要：The sensitive area of targeted observations for short-term(7 d)prediction of vertical thermal structure(VTS)in summer in the Yellow Sea was investigated.We applied the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP)method and an adjoint-free algorithm with the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS).We used vertical integration of CNOP-type temperature errors to locate the sensitive areas,where reduction of initial errors is expected to yield the greatest improvement in VTS prediction for the selected verification area.The identified sensitive areas were northeast−southwest orientated northeast to the verification area,which were possibly related to the southwestward background currents.Then,we performed a series of sensitivity experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the identified sensitive areas.Results show that initial errors in the identified sensitive areas had the greatest negative effect on VTS prediction in the verification area compared to errors in other areas(e.g.,the verification area and areas to its east and northeast).Moreover,removal of initial errors through deploying simulated observations in the identified sensitive areas led to more refined prediction than correction of initial conditions in the verification area itself.Our results suggest that implementation of targeted observation in the CNOP-based sensitive areas is an effective method to improve short-term prediction of VTS in summer in the Yellow Sea.

关 键 词：targeted observation sensitive area vertical thermal structure(VTS) conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) 

分 类 号：P73[天文地球—海洋科学]