关中地区短历时暴雨联合分布研究  

Study on the Joint Distribution of Short-Duration Rainstorm in Guanzhong Area

作　　者：黄洋漫 陈晓宏[2] HUANG Yangman;CHEN Xiaohong(School of Civil Engineering,Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai 519082,China;Center for Water Resources and Environment,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学土木工程学院,广东珠海519082 [2]中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州510275

出　　处：《水文》2021年第5期84-90,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

摘　　要：短历时暴雨是造成洪涝灾害的主要原因之一,影响强度和范围正在不断扩大。根据关中地区39个气象站在1981~2017年的降雨资料,选取10min、30min、60min三个时段的暴雨量,确定其边缘分布函数后利用Copula函数构建二维联合分布,选出各站拟合最优的Copula函数类型后绘制相应的联合、同现概率分布图,并计算了暴雨概率值、重现期特征和不同条件下各历时暴雨组合的风险率。随后分析了暴雨的时空变化。对关中地区短历时暴雨的联合分布和发展趋势的研究有利于城市防洪排涝,有效防控山洪灾害。Short-term rainstorm is one of the main causes of floods,and its impacting intensity and scope are continuously expanding.According to the rainfall data at 39 meteorological stations in Guanzhong area during 1981-2017,this paper selected the storm rainfall of 10 min,30 min and 60 min periods to determine the marginal distribution function,then applied the Copula function to construct a two-dimensional joint distribution.After selecting the optimal fitting Copula function type of each station,the corresponding joint and co-occurrence probability distribution diagrams were drawn,and the rainstorm probability value,the characteristics of the return period and the risk rate of each duration rainstorm combination under different conditions were calculated.Whereafter,it analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of heavy rain.Research on the joint distribution and development trend of short-duration rainstorms in Guanzhong area is beneficial to urban flood control and drainage and effective prevention and control of flash flood.

关 键 词：关中地区 COPULA函数 联合分布 时空变化 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]