基于不同GM(1,1)模型的江苏省卫生总费用趋势预测及分析  

Trend prediction and analysis of total health expenditure based on different GM(1,1)in Jiangsu province

作　　者：戴泽阳 徐爱军 乔学斌 DAI Ze-yang;XU Ai-jun;QIAO Xue-bin(School of Health Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine,Jiangsu 210000,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,江苏210000 [2]南京中医药大学护理学院 [3]南京中医药大学校长办公室

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2021年第19期3549-3553,3564,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(2018VJX065);江苏省中医药科技项目(ZD201801);江苏高校护理学优势学科建设工程资助项目(2019YSHL040);江苏省教育厅哲学社会科学重点研究基地基金(2019A01)。

摘　　要：目的分析江苏省2008年至2018年卫生总费用的筹资构成情况,并利用GM(1,1)模型预测分析江苏省后5年的卫生总费用的变化趋势,为宏观政策制定提供科学合理的数据支持,也能为其他地区提供参考借鉴。方法分别构建传统GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对江苏省2008—2018年卫生总费用、政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出以及个人现金卫生支出进行训练、拟合,从而选出最佳模型对江苏省卫生总费用及其构成进行预测。结果2008—2018年江苏省卫生总费用总体呈上升趋势,预测2019—2023年,江苏省卫生总费用保持稳步增长趋势,2023年将达到8102.19亿元,其中政府卫生支出、社会卫生支出和个人现金卫生支出的比重将达到10.19%、69.24%和20.58%。结论江苏省卫生总费用总体呈上升趋势,但筹资结构不平衡。政府卫生支出相对占比较低,社会卫生支出占比在逐年上升,个人卫生支出占比逐年下降,今后应建立健全长期有效的卫生财政投入机制、鼓励社会办医、不断深化医疗卫生改革,进一步优化筹资结构,保障江苏省医疗卫生服务的可持续发展。Objective To analyze the financing constitution of the total health expenditure in Jiangsu Province from 2008 to 2018,predict and analyze the change trend of the total health expenditure in Jiangsu Province in the subsequent five years through GM(1,1)model,provide scientific and reasonable data support for formulating macro policies,and offer references for other regions.Methods traditional GM(1,1),new information GM(1,1)and metabolic GM(1,1)models were constructed for the training and fitting of the total health expenditure,government health expenditure,and social health expenditure and personal cash health expenditure of Jiangsu province from 2008 to 2018,thereby selecting the optimal model to predict the total health expenditure and its constitution in Jiangsu Province.Results The total health expenditure in Jiangsu province from 2008 to 2018 demonstrated an overall rising trend and will maintain a steady growing trend from 2019 to 2023 as predicted.The number was expected to reach 810.219 billion yuan in 2023,among which the proportion of government health expenditure,social health expenditure and individual cash health expenditure would reach 10.19%,69.24%and 20.58%.Conclusion:The total health expenditure in Jiangsu province shows a rising trend,but the financing structure is imbalanced.The government health expenditure accounts for a relatively low proportion.The proportion of social health expenditure is increasing year by year,and the proportion of personal health expenditure is decreasing year by year.It is necessary to establish and perfect long-term and effective health financial investment mechanism in the future,and encourage non-governmental medical services,and keep strengthening medical and health reform,further optimize financing structure to guarantee the sustainable development of medical and health services in Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 卫生总费用 灰色预测 江苏省 

分 类 号：R197.1[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]