政府环境规制对污染物排放的影响研究--以“两型社会”试验区为例  

Study on the Impact of Government Environmental Regulation on Pollutant Emission:The Case of"Two-Oriented Society"Pilot Zone

作　　者：颜建军 李军艳 徐雷 Yan Jianjun;Li Junyan;Xu Lei(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,410205

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2021年第4期209-233,共25页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(72088101);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72091511);国家社会科学基金青年项目(18CJL043);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(17YJC790178);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2020JJ4259);湖南省教育厅科学研究项目(20A121)的资助。

摘　　要：将“两型社会”试验区设立作为拟自然实验,基于2003—2017年长江经济带108个城市的平衡面板数据,主要利用合成控制法构造“反事实”状态,借助倾向得分匹配-双重差分法探究“两型社会”试验区设立对污染物排放的因果处置效应及传导机制。实证结果表明:整体而言,试验区设立使得试点城市相较于非试点城市的工业废水排放强度显著降低,但其在降低工业二氧化硫排放强度、工业烟(粉)尘排放强度方面的效果并不明显。从空间异质性来看,试验区存在明显的区域异质性效应,“长、株、潭城市群”较武汉城市圈在降低工业废水排放强度方面取得了更明显的成效,并且“两型社会”试验区的空间扩散效应也带动了接壤城市降低工业废水排放强度。通过构建中介效应模型进一步识别试验区设立降低工业废水排放强度的影响机制,发现以城市经济发展水平、城镇化率等指标为中介变量的中介效应显著。另外,基于产业结构的异质性角度,证实试验区设立促使试点城市的工业污染密集型产业内部出现“去污染化”,尤其是对降低石油加工、炼焦及核燃料加工业以及非金属矿物制造业等高耗能和污染物排放密集型行业产值比重影响显著。经过一系列有效性和稳健性检验之后,所得结论依旧成立。Based on the balance panel data of 108 cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2003 to 2017,the"two oriented society"pilot zone was set up as a quasi-natural experiment.the"counterfactual"state is mainly constructed by using the SCM and the causal disposal effect and transmission mechanism of the establishment of the pilot zone on pollutant emission are explored by using the PSM-DID.The results show that,the establishment of the pilot zone significantly reduces the industrial wastewater emission intensity of the pilot cities compared with the non pilot cities,but the effect of the establishment of the pilot zone in reducing the industrial sulfur dioxide emission intensity and industrial dust emission intensity is not obvious.From the perspective of spatial heterogeneity,the pilot zone has obvious regional heterogeneity effect.Changsha Metropolitan Region has achieved more obvious results in reducing the discharge intensity of industrial wastewater than Wuhan ur-ban circle,moreover,the spatial diffusion effect of the pilot zone also drives the neighboring cities to reduce the discharge intensity of industrial wastewater.The intermediary effect model is constructed to further quantitatively identify the impact mechanism of reducing the intensity of industrial wastewater discharge in the pilot zone.The results show that the intermediary effect with the indicators of urban economic development and urbanization as intermediary variables is significant.In addition,based on the heterogeneity of industrial structure,it is confirmed that the establishment of the pilot zone promotes the"decontamination"within the industrial pollution intensive industries in the pilot cities,especially the significant impact on reducing the output value proportion of high energy consuming and pollutant emission intensive industries such as oil processing,coking and nuclear fuel processing industry and non-metallic mineral manufacturing industry.After a series of validity and robustness tests,the conclusion is still valid.

关 键 词：长江经济带 两型社会 污染物排放 合成控制法 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]