基于实测数据的呼和浩特近郊风速分布模型对比研究  

COMPARATIVE STUDY ON WIND SPEED DISTRIBUTION MODELS OF HOHHOT SUBURB BASED ON MEASURED DATA

作　　者：王文新[1,2,3] 陈可欣 白杨 汪建文 Wang Wenxin;Chen Kexin;Bai Yang;Wang Jianwen(College of Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Key Laboratory of Wind and Solar Energy Utilization Mechanism and Optimization,Hohhot 010051,China;College of Energy and Power Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古工业大学土木工程学院,呼和浩特010051 [2]内蒙古自治区风能太阳能利用机理及优化重点实验室,呼和浩特010051 [3]内蒙古工业大学能源与动力工程学院,呼和浩特010051

出　　处：《太阳能学报》2021年第9期370-376,共7页Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51766014);2017内蒙古自治区重大基础研究开放课题。

摘　　要：精确评估风资源首先要详尽描述当地风的统计特征。采用ZephIR雷达测风系统采集呼和浩特近郊的风数据,以月为时间尺度分析呼和浩特近郊实测风速统计特性和风速分布情况,采用Rayleigh、双参数和三参数Weibull共3种风速概率分布模型,分别运用最小二乘法(LSE)和极大似然法(MLE)2种参数估计方法,对各算法与全年实测风数据的拟合效果进行对比。结果表明:针对于呼和浩特近郊,采用LSE法估算的三参数Weibull分布可获得较高精度且拟合性能稳定;以月为时间尺度单独对各参数变化的时空特性进行分析能准确描述当地近郊风的实际情况,这可为后续分析风功率波动特性及近郊风力机微观选址、风能开发规划等提供基础。In order to accurately evaluate wind resources,the statistical characteristics of local wind should be described in detail.For this purpose,ZephIR lidar is used for measured wind data of the suburb of Hohhot.The statistical characteristics and distribution of the measured wind speed in the suburb of Hohhot were analyzed by taking the month as the time scale.Three commonly used wind speed distribution models(Rayleigh,two-parameter Weibull,and three-parameter Weibull distribution models)are used to fit the measured data.According to the fitting effect of the model,the parameter estimation method including least square estimation(LSE)and maximum likelihood method(MLE)were compared.The results show that for the suburb of Hohhot,the three-parameter Weibull distribution estimated by LSE method can obtain high accuracy and stable fitting performance.Moreover,taking the month as the time scale to analyze the statistical characteristics of the measured wind speed and the distribution of wind energy resources are more conducive to capture the scattered and changing wind energy in the suburbs.This study provides an important reference for the subsequent analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics and wind energy development planning.

关 键 词：风能 概率分布 参数估计 WEIBULL分布 三参数WEIBULL分布 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]