新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中后期的发展趋势分析——基于意大利疫情数据  

Trend analysis of COVID-19 epidemic situation in middle to late stage-A study based on epidemic data of Italy

作　　者：姚艺 钱亚冠[1] 陈晓霞[1] 徐庆华[1] 方科彬 YAO Yi;QIAN Yaguan;CHEN Xiaoxia;XU Qinghua;FANG Kebin(School of Sciences,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 310023,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江科技学院理学院,杭州310023

出　　处：《浙江科技学院学报》2021年第5期369-377,共9页Journal of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61902082);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY17F020011);浙江省公益技术应用研究项目(LGG19F030001)。

摘　　要：为分析新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情中后期的发展趋势,首先以意大利民事保护部门通报的疫情数据作为数据来源,利用3种模型根据实际数据进行拟合;其次利用SIR(susceptible-infective-removal,易感者、感染者、移出者)模型预测疫情的缓增期、最终累计确诊病例数和当日再生数R t;最后分析物理隔离和医疗资源运作效率对后期发展趋势变化产生的影响。研究结果表明:1)意大利疫情的缓增期是从2020年9月29日开始,最终累计确诊病例数约达到26.89万人;2)自意大利“封城”后当日再生数R t在不断减小,疫情得到有效控制;3)通过仿真试验发现,隔离措施对疫情大规模传播具有重要抑制作用,加强医院收治效率对感染人数峰值的快速下降起到了关键作用;4)意大利确诊病例数还会持续增加,很有可能因复工潮而引起疫情反弹。因此,中国仍需保持高度警惕,严格加强出入境管控,避免输入性病例流入。In order to analyze the development trend of COVID-19 epidemic situation in Italy in the middle to late period,the epidemic data reported by the Italian civil protection department served as the experimental data source,and three models were used to fit the actual data.Then,the SIR(susceptible to infective-removal)model was applied to predict the slow increase period of the epidemic,the final cumulative number of confirmed cases and the intraday regeneration number R_(t).Finally,the effects of physical isolation and medical resource efficiency were analyzed on the trend change.The results show that:1)The gradual increase of the epidemic in Italy started from 29 September 2020,and the cumulative number of confirmed cases reached approximately 268900;2)Since the“lockdown”in Italy,the intraday regeneration number R_(t) has been decreasing,and the epidemic has been effectively controlled;3)Through the simulation experiment,it is found that the isolation measures have a significant restraining effect on the large-scale spread of the epidemic,and the improvement of hospital admission efficiency plays a key role in the rapid decline of the peak number of infected people;4)The number of confirmed cases in Italy will continue to increase,and it is highly likely that the epidemic will rebound due to the resumption of work.Therefore,China still needs to remain on high alert and strictly strengthen entry and exit controls to prevent imported cases from entering the country.

关 键 词：LOGISTIC LSTM SIR 意大利疫情 统计预测 

分 类 号：TP312.8[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] R563.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]