基于Logistic回归的内蒙古兴安盟农牧民布鲁氏菌病危险因素分析  

Analysis on Risk Factors of Brucellosis in Herdsmen in Hinggan League of Inner Mongolia Based on Logistic Regression

作　　者：孙向东[1] 白玉梅 丁建波 高璐[1] 刘平[1] 徐全刚[1] 吴洋丽 Sun Xiangdong;Bai Yumei;Ding Jianbo;Gao Lu;Liu Ping;Xu Quangang;Wu Yangli(China Animal Health and Epidemiology Center,Qingdao,Shandong 266031,China;Hinggan League Keyouqianqi Center For Disease Control and Prevention,Hinggan League,Inner Mongolia 137700,China;Qingdao Yebio Biological Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao,Shandong 266031,China;Huli District Center For Disease Control and Prevention,Xiamen,Fujian 361000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东青岛266031 [2]内蒙古兴安盟科右前旗疾病预防控制中心,内蒙古兴安盟137700 [3]青岛易邦生物工程有限公司,山东青岛266031 [4]厦门市湖里区疾病预防控制中心,福建厦门361000

出　　处：《中国动物检疫》2021年第11期1-6,共6页China Animal Health Inspection

基　　金：宁夏回族自治区重点研发计划项目(2018NCFS0005)。

摘　　要：为探讨农牧民患布鲁氏菌病的危险因素,2012年10月采用成组设计病例-对照研究方法,对47例农牧民布鲁氏菌病患者和253例对照农牧民进行回顾性调查。调查内容包括农牧民的养殖情况、卫生习惯、作业习惯及其布鲁氏菌病知识的掌握程度等。采用非条件Logistic回归模型对资料进行分析。多因素Logistic回归结果显示,缺乏布鲁氏菌病知识(OR=6.117,P<0.01)、母羊存栏时间过长(OR=1.088,P<0.01)、羔羊存栏时间过长(OR=1.183,P<0.01)、及时病态羊隔离(OR=0.123,P<0.01)均有统计学意义。结果表明,缺乏布鲁氏菌病知识、母羊和羔羊存栏时间过长可能是农牧民患布鲁氏菌病的高危因素,而及时隔离病态羊是保护因素。因此,应将加强宣传教育,提高农牧民自我防护能力,以此作为防治布鲁氏菌病的最根本途径,然后在此基础上实施有效的防护措施,可有效降低农牧民患布鲁氏菌病的风险。In order to identify risk factors of brucellosis in herdsmen,47 patients infected with brucellosis and 253 control herdsmen were retrospectively investigated from the aspects of breeding status, health habits,operation habits and awareness of brucellosis knowledge by means of packaged design of case-control study in October 2012.Relevant information was analyzed by unconditional Logistic regression model,and the results showed that,lack of knowledge concerningbrucellosis(OR=6.117,P <0.01),overlong stocking period of ewes(OR=1.088,P <0.01)and lambs(OR=1.183,P <0.01),and timely isolation of sick sheep(OR=0.123,P <0.01) were of statistical significance.Therefore,it was necessary to consider strengthening awareness activities and improving self-protection ability of herdsmen as the ultimate ways to prevent and control brucellosis, and then to implement effective control measures,by which,the risk of brucellosis in herdsmen would be effectively reduced.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病 LOGISTIC回归 风险分析 农牧民 

分 类 号：S851.3[农业科学—预防兽医学]