2005-2019年戊型肝炎季节性流行特征及时间序列分析  

Seasonal characteristics and time series analysis of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019

作　　者：肖正斌 陈恺韵 任宏[3] 王琳[2] 潘启超[3] XIAO Zheng-bin;CHEN Kai-yun;REN Hong;WANG Lin;PAN Qi-chao(Department of Epidemiology,School of Public Health,Fudan University,Shanghai 200032,China;Yangpu District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200093,China;Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,上海200032 [2]上海市杨浦区疾病预防控制中心,上海200093 [3]上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海200336

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2021年第10期923-928,共6页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：上海市卫生和计划委员会课题(201840117)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析上海市2005—2019年戊型病毒性肝炎(戊肝)季节性特征及发病趋势,为上海市戊肝的防治工作提供数据依据。【方法】运用圆形分步法分析2005—2019年上海市戊肝发病的季节性特征,运用自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)分析戊肝的发病趋势。【结果】上海市2005—2019年戊肝发病高峰日在2月27日,高峰期为次年11月17号至6月9日。时间序列显示最优模型为SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)_(12),Akaike信息标准值(AIC)和Schwartz贝叶斯标准值(SBC)分别为1243.799和1250.035,残差为白噪声序列,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为20.253%,预测显示2020—2021年的戊肝发病数较2019年略有下降,但依然处于较高水平。【结论】上海市戊肝发病有较强的季节性特征,应在流行高峰期前做好健康宣教和防控措施。短期预测戊肝的发病数仍然较高,需制订有效的防控策略,积极采取措施。[Objective]To analyze the seasonal characteristics and incidence trend of hepatitis E from 2005 to 2019 in Shanghai,and provide references for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis E.[Methods]The seasonal characteristics of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 were analyzed by circular distribution method.The incidence trend of hepatitis E was analyzed by ARIMA(autoregressive moving average model).[Results]The peak period of hepatitis E in Shanghai from 2005 to 2019 was from November 17 to June 9,and the peak day was on February 27.The time series shows that the optimal model is SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)_(12),Akaike information criterion(AIC)and Schwartz Bayesian information criterion(SBC)are 1243.799 and 1250.035 respectively,and the residual is white noise sequence.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)between the predicted value,and the actual value of this model is 20.253%.The forecast shows a slight decrease in the number of cases of hepatitis E in 2020-2021 compared with 2019,but it is still at a high level.[Conclusion]The incidence of hepatitis E in Shanghai shows a solid seasonal characteristic.Health education and prevention/control measures should be conducted well before the epidemic peak.Based on the short-term prediction,the incidence of hepatitis E would still be high.Effective prevention and control strategies should be developed,and active measures should be taken.

关 键 词：戊型病毒性肝炎 季节性 时间序列 自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R512.6[医药卫生—内科学]