广东省城乡居民消费结构变动与现代服务业发展关系探究--基于VAR模型框架下  

Research on the Relationship between the Consumption Structure Changes of Urban and Rural Residents in Guangdong Province and the Development of Modern Service Industry——Based on the VAR model Framework

作　　者：姚晓垠 刘振武 YAO Xiao-yin;LIU Zhen-wu(Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Nanguo Business School,School of Economics,Guangzhou 510420,Guangdong)

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学南国商学院经济学院,广东广州510420

出　　处：《江苏商论》2021年第11期3-7,共5页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

摘　　要：消费结构与产业结构二者具有密不可分的关系,相互影响、相互促进。广东省是改革开放的先行示范省,本文采用广东省2009—2018年10年相关经济数据,对城乡居民消费结构与现代服务业进行实证分析,通过构建向量自回归模型(VAR模型)框架,采用脉冲响应函数等进行分析,结果表明:现代服务业发展对城乡居民消费结构变动影响较为显著;但同时广东省城乡居民消费结构有待优化升级。本文基于此提出相关建议措施,优化城乡居民消费结构,助力广东省现代服务业发展。The consumption structure and the industrial structure are inextricably linked and influence and promote each other.Guangdong Province is a pilot demonstration province for reform and opening up.This article uses Guangdong Province’s relevant economic data from 2009 to 2018 to conduct an empirical analysis on the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and modern service industries.Impulse response function analysis shows that the development of modern service industry has a significant impact on changes in the consumption structure of urban and rural residents.But at the same time,the consumption structure of urban and rural residents in Guangdong Province needs to be optimized and upgraded.Based on this,this article puts forward relevant suggestions and measures to optimize the consumption structure of urban and rural residents and help the development of modern service industry in Guangdong Province.

关 键 词：消费结构 现代服务业 向量自回归模型 

分 类 号：F71[经济管理—产业经济]