人口老龄化对制造业企业全要素生产率的影响——基于沪深A股制造业上市公司的实证分析  

The Impact of Population Aging on Total Factor Productivity of China’s Manufacturing Enterprises:Based on the Empirical Analysis of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share Listed Manufacturing Companies

作　　者：胡日东[1,2] 曹婧博 Hu Ri-dong;Cao Jing-bo(School of Economics and Finance,Huaqiao University,Quanzhou 362021,Fujian,China;School of Statistics,Huaqiao University,Xiamen 361021,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]华侨大学经济与金融学院,福建泉州362021 [2]华侨大学统计学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《西部论坛》2021年第5期100-111,共12页West Forum

基　　金：福建省科技创新战略研究联合项目(2020R0160)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化带来的劳动力供给结构变化不利于制造业企业全要素生产率提升,但会促使企业转变发展方式,并通过对其他因素的影响促进制造业企业全要素生产率提升。因此,人口老龄化与制造业企业全要素生产率的关系是多种效应综合作用的结果,是非线性的,并有异质性表现。以2000—2019年沪深A股上市制造业企业为样本的分析表明:人口老龄化与制造业企业全要素生产率呈现"倒U型"非线性关系;现阶段中国的人口老龄化对制造业企业全要素生产率具有显著的正向影响,这种促进效应在中部地区最为显著,东部地区次之,而在西部地区不显著;人口老龄化会通过提高劳动力成本、促进人力资本积累和增加R&D投入等路径促进制造业企业全要素生产率提升。应优化和完善人口、教育及劳动政策,积极发掘和创造人口红利,以弱化人口老龄化对劳动力供给结构的消极影响;加快转变发展方式,从依赖人口红利的要素驱动转向利用技术红利的创新驱动,进一步促进企业全要素生产率提升。The change in the labor supply structure brought by population aging is not conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises,but it will prompt enterprises to change their development modes,and promote the improvement of manufacturing enterprises’ total factor productivity through the influence of other factors. Therefore,the relationship between population aging and total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises is the result of the combined effect of multiple effects,is non-linear,and exhibits heterogeneity. The analysis of A-share listed manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2000 to 2019 shows that there is an "inverted U-shaped"non-linear relationship between population aging and total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises. At present, China ’s aging population has a significant positive impact on the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises,which is most significant in the central region,followed by the eastern region,but not significant in the western region. Population aging will promote the total factor productivity of manufacturing enterprises through increasing labor cost,human capital accumulation and R&D input,etc. It is necessary to optimize and perfect population,education and labor policies,actively explore and create demographic dividend to weaken the negative impact of population aging on labor supply structure,and speed up the transformation of development mode,from relying on the factor-driven demographic dividend to the innovation-driven by the technological dividend,so as to further improve the total factor productivity of enterprises.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 制造业企业 全要素生产率 劳动力供给结构 创新驱动 

分 类 号：F241[经济管理—劳动经济] F270[经济管理—国民经济]