财政支出政策对体育产业发展的效应研究--基于2008-2018年的时间序列数据分析  

Research on the Effect of Financial Expenditure Policy on the Development of Sports Industry---Based on the Time Series Data Analysis from 2008 to 2018

作　　者：徐俊 林向阳[1] XU Jun;LIN Xiangyang(School of Physical Education and Sport Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学体育科学学院,福州350117

出　　处：《河北体育学院学报》2021年第6期1-8,共8页Journal of Hebei Sport University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18BTY029)。

摘　　要：基于VAR模型,并运用脉冲响应函数分析、VAR格兰杰因果关系检验、方差分解分析方法,分析中国体育财政支出对体育产业发展和经济增长的动态效应关系。结果表明:根据不同的干预特点,中国体育产业财政政策经历了3个阶段的变化;2008—2018年中国的体育财政支出对体育产业发展有显著的促进作用;体育财政支出对经济增长虽有正向影响,但作用较小,不足以构成引起经济增长的重要因素;体育财政支出对二者的影响都不具有长期效应,而且都有一定的时滞性。Based on VAR model and using impulse response function analysis,VAR Granger causality test and variance decomposition analysis,this paper analyzes the dynamic effect relationship of China’s sports financial expenditure on sports industry development and economic growth.The results show that:according to different intervention characteristics,the financial policy of China’s sports industry has experienced three stages of changes;from 2008 to 2018,China’s sports financial expenditure has significantly promoted the development of sports industry;although sports financial expenditure has a positive impact on economic growth,it has a small effect,which is not enough to constitute an im-portant factor causing economic growth;sports financial expenditure has no long-term effect on both and have a certain time lag.

关 键 词：体育产业 财政支出政策 效应 VAR模型 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]