政策创新扩散与PPP空间分布  

The Diffusion of Policy Innovation and PPP Spatial Distribution

作　　者：秦士坤 王雅龄[2] 杨晓雯 QIN Shikun;WANG Yaling;YANG Xiaowen(Central University of Finance and Economics,102206;Qingdao University,266061;Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences,100142)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学中国财政发展协同创新中心,102206 [2]青岛大学经济学院,266061 [3]中国财政科学研究院,100142

出　　处：《财贸经济》2021年第10期70-86,共17页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“防范和化解PPP项目系统性风险研究”(19BJCJ61)。

摘　　要：2014年以来,PPP政策在我国迅速推广。PPP在各地的空间非均衡性是实施进程中的鲜明特征,难以用单一因素做出解释。本文结合政策创新扩散理论,使用2014—2019年地市级面板数据探讨了PPP空间非均衡性在微观层面的形成机制。研究表明:我国PPP政策在地方政府层面的创新扩散呈现R型的非渐进性特征,并同时受到内部与外部两方面的影响。内部方面,地方政府的债务压力是重要的内部决定因素,对PPP政策具有非线性影响,即随着债务压力的加大,地方政府对PPP有着更强烈的实施意愿,然而当债务压力超过一定水平时,PPP政策实施反而受到抑制,体现出地方政府的"优序融资";外部方面,相邻地方政府间的模仿与竞争是主要的外部决定因素,这种空间策略互动不仅发生在同一省内距离接近、经济发展水平相似的地区,还发生在不同省份距离接近的地区。上述研究为优化我国PPP空间分布格局、防范财政风险提供了一定的启示。The spatial imbalance of Public-Private Partnership(PPP)in China is a significant feature in its implementation process,which is difficult to be explained by a single factor.Combined with the diffusion theory of policy innovation,this paper employs the 2014-2019 city-level panel data to explore the formation mechanism of PPP’s spatial imbalance.The results show that the diffusion of PPP policy innovation in China is R-shaped and non-gradual,and is also affected by both internal and external factors.Fiscal stress is an essential internal determinant,and has an inverted U-shaped nonlinear impact on PPP.Under growing fiscal stress,local governments are more willing to implement PPP.But the fiscal stress,once exceeding a certain level,will restrain the PPP policy implementation.This reflects the local government’s"pecking order."Imitation and competition between neighboring regions is the primary external determinant,showing a spatial strategy interaction among governments.This interaction occurs between geographically close at a similar economic development level places in the same province and also between geographically close places across provinces.Our research sheds some light on how to optimize the spatial distribution pattern of PPP and guard against fiscal risks in China.

关 键 词：政策创新扩散 PPP空间分布 地方政府债务 财政压力 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]