赶超战略的起源:殖民、制度与威权体制  

The Origin of Catch-up Strategy: Colonization, Institution, and Authoritarian Regime

作　　者：赵秋运 李思静 魏智武 杨冀轩 李致远 ZHAO Qiuyun(Institute of New Structural Economics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学新结构经济学研究院,北京100871 [2]剑桥大学土地经济系,剑桥CB39EP

出　　处：《河海大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2021年第5期9-16,109,共9页Journal of Hohai University：Philosophy and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(18BJL120)。

摘　　要：第二次世界大战以后,发展中国家普遍采取了优先发展重工业的经济发展战略。有别于传统的“意识形态说”和“国际价格波动说”。一个经济体的被殖民历史以及独立后的威权体制才是决定赶超战略实施的主要原因,其中威权体制具有决定作用。一方面,公共资源由少数政治精英掌握提高了赶超战略的可行性;另一方面,威权体制下的官员激励机制难以确保经济信息的有效传达,这进一步造成了赶超战略的持续。实证研究发现,政治体制的威权程度越高,则该经济体推行赶超战略的可能性越大,而且在拥有殖民经历的经济体样本中,该效应更为明显。In the post-World War II era,developing countries widely adopted the Catch-up Strategy which prioritized the development of heavy industries,after shaking off colonial or semi-colonial rule.Different from the traditional Ideology Hypothesis and International Price Fluctuation Hypothesis,we think that Catch-up Strategy can be mainly due to the high death toll,long colonization and authoritarian regime that were caused by institutional heterogeneities under colonial control,and the role of authoritarian regimes dominated.For one thing,the mechanism that public policies were largely determined by political elites led to the high likelihood of adopting Catch-up Strategy;meanwhile,local governments frequently hiding the truth due to authoritarian regime’s politician incentive schemes resulted in the persistence of the strategy.By panel data our empirical results substantiate the aforementioned mechanism:countries with highly authoritarian regimes were more likely to adopt Catch-up Strategy,especially to the colonial control.

关 键 词：赶超战略 威权体制 重工业优先发展战略 进口替代战略 

分 类 号：F119[经济管理—国际贸易]